Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 44.87%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.75%) and 2-1 (8.67%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.