Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 54.28%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 20.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.89%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (7.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.