Brasileiro | Gameweek 38
Dec 10, 2021 at 12.30am UK
Estádio Olímpico João Havelange
Fluminense3 - 0Chapecoense
We said: Fluminense 1-0 Chapecoense
Flu have won five straight matches at the Maracana, and they have not been easy games either, putting three past Flamengo and netting twice against Palmeiras while only conceding once in their last four games. Perhaps the best news for Chape at this point is that their campaign is nearly over, and they can hopefully regroup in Serie B next season, but they will still want to finish the year strong, although it seems as though they do not have the personnel to pick up any points in this one. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 64%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 13.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.6%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (5.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fluminense | Draw | Chapecoense |
| 64% | 22.41% | 13.58% |
| Both teams to score 40.82% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
