The Estadio Dr. Magalhaes Pessoa plays host to the 2023-24 Taca da Liga final when two-time champions Braga take on first-time finalists Estoril Praia on Saturday.
Seeking their first major title, the Canarinhos will have to be at their best this weekend as they take on an opposing side whom they have failed to get the better of in the last 11 meetings between the two teams since September 2015.
Match preview
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Spanish striker Abel Ruiz grabbed the headlines on Tuesday when he netted the only goal of the game to hand Braga a 1-0 victory over Sporting Lisbon and send them through to the Taca da Liga final.
Following a goalless first half, Ruiz headed home the winner against the run of play five minutes after coming off the bench, leaving Ruben Amorim's side to rue their lethargic display at the attacking end of the pitch.
Braga had scraped through the group stages by the skin of their teeth as they finished only above second-placed Casa Pia on goal difference after picking up four points from their two matches in Group A.
Artur Jorge's men kicked off their quest for a first Taca da Liga title since 2020 with a 1-1 draw against Casa Pia on November 1, seven weeks before beating second-tier side Nacional 3-1 to secure top spot.
Not only have Os Arcebispos made it to yet another cup final, but they have enjoyed a solid campaign in the Primeira Liga, where they are currently fourth in the standings, level on 36 points with Vitoria de Guimaraes.
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In a classic David versus Goliath clash, Estoril Praia picked up their biggest win this season when they knocked out high-flying Benfica in the other Taca da Liga semi-final fixture on Wednesday.
After falling behind to Rafik Guitane's 16th-minute opener, Nicolas Otamendi struck in the 58th minute to level matters, but with nothing to separate the sides after normal time, the game went on to penalties, where Estoril picked up a 5-4 victory.
This was in keeping with their dominant display in the group stages, where the Canarinhos saw off Leixoes 2-1 in the Group D curtain-raiser on September 27, before claiming an impressive 3-1 victory over defending champions Porto on December 6 to finish with maximum points.
It is worth noting that Estoril had lost each of their previous five games against Benfica and were without a win in any of the last 20 meetings between the two sides, losing 18 and claiming two draws since January 2013.
Having suffered four consecutive defeats prior to Wednesday's win, manager Vasco Seabra will hope that his side can build on that result as they set out to secure their first-ever major title.
However, Estoril Praia face the stern challenge of taking on a Braga side who are unbeaten in each of their last 11 meetings, claiming nine wins and two draws since a 1-0 defeat in September 2015.
Team News
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Braga will have to cope without the services of Sikou Niakate and 27-year-old striker Simon Banza, who are currently at the ongoing Africa Cup of Nations with Mali and Congo DR respectively.
Ruiz ended his 17-game goal drought with his winner against Sporting Lisbon last time out, but we expect the Spanish striker to start from the bench once again, with Ricardo Horta, Alvaro Djalo and Rodrigo Zalazar leading Os Arcebispos' attack.
With his assist in the semi-final victory, Zalazar now has six goal involvements in his last six games and the Uruguayan forward will be one to keep an eye on.
We expect Jorge to name an unchanged defence line once again, meaning that we should see a back four of Vitor Gomes, Jose Fonte, Paulo Oliveira and Cristian Borja shielding Matheus in goal.
Meanwhile, Estoril will take to the pitch without Portuguese midfielder Alex Soares, who is yet to make an appearance this year after coming off injured against Porto on December 6.
He is joined on the Canarinhos' injury table by 28-year-old defender Erick Cabaco, who has been sidelined since sustaining a severe muscle problem back in September.
Scottish midfielder Jordan Holsgrove has missed each of Estoril's last two matches since picking up an injury against Moreirense on January 13 and is also a major doubt for Saturday's final.
Braga possible starting lineup:
Matheus; Gomez, Fonte, Oliveira, Borja; Moutinho, Pizzi, Carvalho; Zalazar, Horta, Djalo
Estoril Praia possible starting lineup:
Carne; Parra, Volnei, Vital; Gomes, Fernandes, Koindredi, Araujo; Guitane, A Marques, J Marques
We say: Braga 2-1 Estoril Praia
Given the stakes of Saturday's encounter, we expect a thrilling contest, with both sides having a go at each other for the cup glory. While we expect Estoril to put up a fight, Braga boast a more experienced and superior squad and we see them coming out on top once again.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 68.21%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 14.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.95%) and 3-1 (7.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.68%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-2 (4.07%).
Joshua Ojele
