Portuguese outfit Braga will welcome French side Monaco to the Estadio Municipal de Braga for the first leg of their Europa League last-16 tie on Thursday night.
The hosts head into this contest off the back of two draws in the Primeira Liga, while the visitors claimed a slender 1-0 Ligue 1 victory away at Marseille last weekend, ending a run of four games without a win.
Match preview
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Braga are sure to be counting their lucky stars, as they find themselves in the last 16 after scraping through both the group stage and the playoff round.
The Archbishops accumulated 10 points from their six group games, but one defeat and one draw in their final two fixtures saw them finish second in Group F, just one point above Midtjylland in third.
In the playoff round, Braga were then the only side who required a penalty shootout to progress to the last 16. After rescuing a 2-0 first-leg defeat against Sheriff Tiraspol with victory by the same scoreline in the reverse fixture, the Portuguese side won 3-2 on penalties in a shootout which saw the two teams miss five spot kicks between them.
Competing in the last 16 for the first time since 2015-16, Carlos Carvalhal's men now face a challenging contest against Ligue 1 side Monaco, who they have only locked horns with once before in their history, drawing a friendly encounter 0-0 in the summer of 2019.
Braga, who are currently the best of the rest domestically behind Primeira Liga giants Porto, Sporting Lisbon and Benfica, have played against French opposition on six previous occasions – four times against Marseille and twice against Paris Saint-Germain – though they have only won two of these games, both of which were on home soil.
The Archbishops have progressed from their previous two ties in the last 16 of the Europa League, eliminating Liverpool in 2010-11 and Fenerbahce in 2015-16, and managed to win both of their home games in the process. Carvalhal will be hoping his side can be successful again on home soil in midweek, and take an advantage into the second leg.
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Monaco were Champions League regulars between 2014-15 and 2018-19, and surprisingly reached the semi-finals in 2016-17; however this year, they are competing in the Europa League for just the second time in their history and have advanced to the knockout rounds for the very first time.
The Monegasques, who alternated between victory and a draw in their six group games, finished top of Group B ahead of Real Sociedad, PSV Eindhoven and Sturm Graz, and were one of only four teams – along with fellow French side Lyon, Galatasaray and Eintracht Frankfurt – who successfully completed this year's group stage without suffering a single defeat.
Philippe Clement will have been pleased with his side's defensive resilience during the group stage as they conceded only four goals in their six matches, a defensive feat which can only be bettered by West Ham United in this year's competition.
Monaco have progressed from the last 16 on each of the last two occasions when reaching this stage in European competition, both in the Champions League, eliminating Premier League duo Arsenal and Manchester City in 2014-15 and 2016-17 respectively.
The Ligue 1 outfit have, however, failed to win any of their last five encounters against Portuguese opposition, since a Thierry Henry brace helped them beat Sporting Lisbon 3-2 at home in the group stage of the 1997-98 Champions League.
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Team News
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Braga will be without midfield trio Lucas Mineiro (knee), Nuno Sequeira and Roger Fernandes (both muscle) due to injury.
After losing Galeno, who is currently the joint-top goalscorer in the Europa League with six strikes, to Porto in the January transfer window, Francisco Moura is the most likely candidate to start at left wing-back.
Ricardo Horta – who has scored 15 goals across all competitions this season, at least 10 more than the rest of his teammates – is set to start alongside Iuri Medeiros in an advanced midfield role behind lone striker Vitor Oliveira.
As for Monaco, Krepin Diatta remains sidelined with a knee injury, while Cesc Fabregas and Radoslaw Majecki are both doubtful and will be assessed ahead of kickoff.
The visitors will also be without the suspended Youssouf Fofana, so either Jean Lucas or Eliot Matazo is set to start in centre-midfield alongside in-demand French starlet Aurelien Tchouameni, though Aleksandr Golovin will also be pushing to start after recovering from injury.
Portuguese winger Gelson Martins and Sofiane Diop are expected to provide width on the flanks, while Kevin Volland will likely start in behind central striker Wissam Ben Yedder, who has netted 15 times in all tournaments so far this season.
Braga possible starting lineup:
Matheus; Tormena, P. Oliveira, Leite; Fabinho, Al Musrati, A. Horta, Moura; R. Horta, Medeiros; Oliveira
Monaco possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Sidibe, Maripan, Badiashile, Henrique; Tchouameni, Lucas; Martins, Volland, Diop; Ben Yedder
We say: Braga 1-1 Monaco
A closely-fought contest between two evenly-matched sides is set to take place on Thursday, with Braga arguably the slight favourites given their impressive home record – losing only one of their 17 home matches across all competitions this season.
Having said that, we expect the visitors to claim at least a draw, with the tie to be nicely poised for next week's second leg in France.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 34.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Monaco win was 0-1 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
