Borussia Dortmund take on Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with the hosts looking to leapfrog their forthcoming opponents in the table with a victory.
Indeed, the visitors currently occupy the fourth Champions League qualification spot after losing just one of their opening 13 games.
Match preview
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It has certainly been a mixed start to the season for Dortmund, who removed Lucien Favre from his position as manager last month after a string of poor results.
Edin Terzic has been installed as interim coach until the end of the season, with the German confirming that star striker Erling Braut Haaland is "on schedule" in terms of recovering from his hamstring injury. BVB won only one of the four league games that the Golden Boy winner missed at the back end of 2020.
Haaland's injury did at least provide 16-year-old Youssoufa Moukoko with an opportunity in attack, though, with the teenager becoming the youngest goalscorer in Bundesliga history in the 2-1 defeat to Union Berlin prior to the winter break. The striker certainly looks a serious talent, possessing a left foot as fierce as Haaland's but perhaps even greater skill in tight areas to help break down a defensive low block.
Terzic may well call on Moukoko once more from the start against Wolfsburg depending on Haaland's conditioning. While it is too early in the season to brand any fixture "must-win", it does feel like BVB cannot afford to lose this one, otherwise they face an uphill battle to qualify for the Champions League for a sixth successive season.
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Wolfsburg have not competed in Europe's elite competition since the 2015-16 campaign, when they were narrowly defeated by eventual champions Real Madrid in the quarter-finals, but Oliver Glasner looks to have constructed a side capable of returning to the Champions League.
Only reigning European champions Bayern Munich have defeated his side domestically this season, with a premature exit in a Europa League playoff at the hands of AEK Athens perhaps helping Wolfsburg in terms of rest and recuperation for the Bundesliga.
That certainly looked to be the case during the 1-0 win over Stuttgart prior to the winter break, with Josip Brekalo's wickedly deflected free kick proving enough to overcome the high-flying promoted visitors. Both sides missed presentable chances, with Wout Weghorst and Nicolas Gonzalez particularly guilty of profligacy for either side, but the Wolves always looked to have their opponents at arm's length despite missing several key players.
Glasner will be hoping for more of the same on Sunday, but avoiding defeat and keeping ahead of their forthcoming opponents in the table may well be the primary aim from the match.
Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga form: WLDLWL
Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions): DWLWLW
Wolfsburg Bundesliga form: WWDWLW
Wolfsburg form (all competitions): WDWLWW
Team News
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As confirmed by Terzic, Haaland is back in training, but may have to settle for a place on the bench as the Norway forward searches for match fitness.
Thorgan Hazard and Marcel Schmelzer are definitely out for the hosts, with Mats Hummels a doubt.
Wolfsburg have several doubtful players due to the coronavirus, with Maximilian Arnold, Maximilian Philipp, Maxence Lacroix, Jerome Roussillon and Xaver Schlager all having to quarantine over the Christmas period.
Admir Mehmedi is definitely ruled out with an Achilles tendon issue, but John Brooks is available once again.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Burki; Meunier, Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro; Can, Witsel; Sancho, Reus, Reyna; Moukoko
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Mbabu, Lacroix, Brooks, Roussillon; Schlager, Guilavogui; Baku, Steffen, Brekalo; Weghorst
We say: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Wolfsburg
With Wolfsburg's team selection up in the air, largely due to a coronavirus outbreak in the squad, we can envisage Dortmund starting the New Year with a win as they look to draw a line under the Favre era.
Haaland returning to the side would increase their chances of winning, of course, but we think they may look to ease their top goalscorer back into things, with Moukoko possessing the ability to punish a potentially-depleted Wolves' back line.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 52.04%. A win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 24.97% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.96%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Wolfsburg win was 1-2 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
