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Villarreal logo
Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 6, 2022 at 8pm UK
Estadio de la Cerámica
Bayern logo

Villarreal
1 - 0
Bayern

Preview: Villarreal vs. Bayern Munich - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Villarreal and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Having already upset the odds in this season's Champions League, Villarreal will seek another memorable European scalp when Bayern Munich pay a visit to the Estadio de la Ceramica for the first leg of their quarter-final tie on Wednesday night.

Unai Emery's men produced a phenomenal showing against Juventus to book their spot in the last eight, while the Bavarians ultimately ran out comfortable winners over Red Bull Salzburg.


Match preview

Villarreal's Gerard Moreno and teammates celebrate after the match on March 16, 2022© Reuters

Villarreal were up against it after a matter of seconds in their last-16 encounter with Juventus, with Dusan Vlahovic taking no time at all to settle into life in the Champions League before the Yellow Submarine sank the Old Lady from thereon in.

After recovering to draw the first leg 1-1, Villarreal travelled to Turin in more hope than expectation but humbled the Italian giants on their Allianz Stadium turf, as Gerard Moreno, Pau Torres and Arnaut Danjuma all found the target within the last 20 minutes.

Now rewarded with a tie against even more daunting opposition in Bayern Munich, Villarreal have failed to keep the momentum going following their historic night in Turin - following up a 1-0 loss to Cadiz with an equally dismal 2-0 defeat to Levante at the weekend.

With their La Liga fortunes taking a turn for the worse in the past few weeks, their top-six destiny is now out of their own hands as they continue as underdogs in the Champions League, where they have been knocked out in the quarter-finals once before to Arsenal in 2008-09.

As disappointing as their recent run on the road has been, barring the 3-0 win at Juve, Villarreal enter Wednesday's first leg having strung together a nine-game unbeaten streak on home soil, with Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid also failing to get the better of them at the Ceramica in that streak.

Bayern Munich coach Julian Nagelsmann celebrates their fifth goal on March 8, 2022© Reuters

Failure to put the tie to bed in the first leg against an incredibly youthful Salzburg outfit did lead to one or two raised eyebrows, but Bayern soon restored order with a traditional Bavarian thumping on their own turf to ease into the next round.

On a day where Manchester United scouts were supposedly watching him in action, Salzburg goalkeeper Philipp Kohn let in seven goals to Julian Nagelsmann's side, with Robert Lewandowski taking just 23 minutes to bag another hat-trick on the night.

Bayern's customary Bundesliga title is certainly not in the bag just yet, but the reigning champions ensured that they remained out of sight of Borussia Dortmund by thrashing Freiburg 4-1 at the weekend as they seek to avoid a second successive quarter-final exit in the Champions League.

Going eight games unbeaten in all competitions is a surefire way to boost the morale in the squad - not that Bayern normally need it - and not since September 2017 have the German giants suffered defeat away from home in the Champions League.

Bayern and Villarreal met for the very first time in the group stage of the 2011-12 Champions League, with the Bundesliga champions securing a 2-0 win away from home before a 3-1 success in Bavaria en route to collecting their runners-up medals.

Villarreal Champions League form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W

Villarreal form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L

Bayern Munich Champions League form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W

Bayern Munich form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W



Team News

Canada's Alphonso Davies pictured on October 7, 2021© Reuters

Villarreal continue to cope without long-term absentee Alberto Moreno due to his ruptured cruciate ligament, while Boulaye Dia and Samuel Chukwueze are both fitness doubts for the first leg.

Dia was left out of the squad to take on Levante due to muscular discomfort, while Chukwueze is nursing an adductor problem sustained during the international break, so the stage is set for Arnaut Danjuma and Gerard Moreno to lead the line here.

The manner of Villarreal's loss to Levante could tempt Emery into making a change or two here, especially with Serge Aurier and Pervis Estupinan both starting in the 3-0 success at Juventus.

Meanwhile, Bayern lost midfielder Corentin Tolisso to injury just 23 minutes after the Frenchman came on as a substitute against Freiburg, and he is reportedly set for several weeks on the sidelines with that torn thigh muscle.

Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting is COVID-positive but is nursing a knee injury anyway, while Alphonso Davies has announced that he intends to make his comeback from myocarditis in the weekend's meeting with Augsburg but is in the travelling party for this one.

Tanguy Nianzou was given the nod against Freiburg, but the experience of Niklas Sule may be preferred at the back this week, while Nagelsmann will likely be forced to leave one of Serge Gnabry, Leroy Sane and Kingsley Coman on the bench. Bouna Sarr has also been ruled out due to tendon problems.

Villarreal possible starting lineup:
Rulli; Aurier, Albiol, Torres, Estupinan; Pino, Parejo, Capoue, Trigueros; Danjuma, Moreno

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Sule, Upamecano, Hernandez; Kimmich, Goretzka; Sane, Muller, Coman; Lewandowski


SM words green background

We say: Villarreal 0-2 Bayern Munich

Back-to-back league defeats to sides whom they would have expected to beat is not a recipe for success for Villarreal ahead of the visit of Bayern, but they normally prove to be a tough nut to crack at home.

However, playing on rival turf in the Champions League has not phased Bayern for several years now, and we can only picture Nagelsmann's free-scoring crop claiming a healthy first-leg advantage.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 49.5%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 26.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.56%) and 0-2 (8.27%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-0 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Villarreal vs Bayern

Villarreal
9.4%
Draw
11.4%
Bayern Munich
79.2%
490
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