After an entertaining 2-2 draw in Brazil, Barcelona SC and Fluminense will battle for a spot in the Copa Libertadores semi-finals on Friday, as they square off in the second leg of their quarter-final tie.
Fluminense hit a last-gasp equaliser to come into the away leg on level terms, but they have plenty more to do if they are to qualify.
Match preview
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Barcelona SC progressed through the Copa Libertadores group stage in impressive fashion, topping a tough group alongside Santos, Boca Juniors and The Strongest with 13 points to book their spot in the knockout stage, having recorded an impressive double over Santos and a win against Argentinian giants Boca Juniors.
They then took on Velez Sarsfield in the round of 16, and were fighting from behind after a 1-0 defeat in the first leg in Buenos Aires.
Fabian Bustos's side bounced back in style upon the return to Ecuador though, overturning the deficit with a 3-1 victory thanks to goals from Adonis Preciado, Gabriel Cortez and Jonathan Perlaza.
That saw them progress to the final eight, and they went behind as Gabriel Teixeira put Fluminense ahead, but goals from Preciado and Cortez gave them a one-goal advantage in the dying minutes, only for Fred to convert a penalty in the 95th minute to draw the Brazilian side level going into the second leg.
Bustos's men have not had the ideal preparation for Friday's game, as they suffered a 1-0 defeat to Orense in domestic action last time out after previously winning five consecutive games in all competitions prior to the first-leg draw.
Following the disappointment of conceding a late equaliser and suffering a loss last time out, Barcelona will be keen to bounce back and finish the job to seal a place in the semi-finals of South America's elite club competition.
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Fluminense also advanced to the knockout stage at the top of their group, and will be equally determined to continue their Copa Libertadores journey with a win on Friday.
A pair of victories over Santa Fe and a crucial 3-1 win over Argentinian giants River Plate saw Fluminense progress in first place with 11 points, and they met Paraguayan outfit Cerro Porteno in the round of 16.
A 2-0 away win, thanks to goals from Nene and Egidio, put Roger Machado's side in a strong position to qualify, and Fred converted a penalty in the second leg to confirm their passage with a 3-0 aggregate victory, booking their clash with Barcelona SC.
Having grabbed a late equaliser to avoid coming into the away leg a goal down, Fluminense will be optimistic, but a disappointing run of domestic form may slightly hit their confidence, having recently suffered a 1-0 defeat to strugglers America Mineiro and most recently a 4-2 loss at the hands of Internacional.
As a result, they will now look to put a three-game winless run behind them and pick up what would be a majorly impressive away win to secure their progression to the final four.
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Team News
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Barcelona SC will be without winger Emmanuel Martinez, who is suspended following his red card in the first leg.
Winger Adonis Preciado will be pushing for a starting spot after he came off the bench to find the net in that game.
Meanwhile, Carlos Garces is expected to come back into the starting XI to lead the line after a substitute appearance last time out, having registered three goals and four assists in this season's tournament.
The Fluminense line will be led by experienced forward Fred, who hit the late equaliser in the away leg to take his tally to six goals and two assists in eight Copa Libertadores appearances this season.
Their only absentees should be Hudson and Caio Paulista, as the pair continue to battle through injuries.
Centre-back Nino recently returned from the Olympic Games to rejoin the squad, and he found the net in their defeat to Internacional last time out.
Barcelona SC possible starting lineup:
Burrai; Castillo, Leon, Riveros, Pineida; Pinatares, Carcelen; Preciado, Diaz, Perlaza; Garces
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Marcos; Xavier, Nino, Claro, Egidio; Martinelli, Yago; Henrique, Cazares, Teixeira; Fred
We say: Barcelona SC 2-1 Fluminense (Barcelona SC win 4-3 on aggregate)
Despite throwing away a lead in the dying minutes of the away game, we think Barcelona SC stand in a strong position to seal the result on home turf, as Fluminense have to make the trip in a disappointing run of form.
We see the Ecuadorian outfit progressing with a narrow win on the night and on aggregate, although this could certainly go either way.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona SC win with a probability of 49.14%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 29.12% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona SC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.16%) and 2-0 (6.1%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 1-2 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
