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Brighton logo
Premier League | Gameweek 30
Jun 20, 2020 at 3pm UK
The American Express Community Stadium
Arsenal logo

Brighton
2 - 1
Arsenal

Dunk (75'), Maupay (90+5')
Burn (30'), Mooy (44')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Pepe (68')
Lacazette (54')

Preview: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Arsenal - predictions, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal, including team news and predicted lineups.

Arsenal will be looking to recover from a dampening 3-0 defeat to Manchester City when they travel to the South Coast to take on Brighton & Hove Albion on Saturday afternoon.

Meanwhile, Brighton will be looking for their first win of 2020 as they return to action following a three-month hiatus due to the coronavirus pandemic.


Match preview

Brighton boss Graham Potter at Molineux on March 7, 2020© Reuters

As the only side in the Premier League yet to taste victory since the turn of the decade, Brighton are firmly embroiled in a relegation battle as they prepare to return to action in an empty Amex Stadium this weekend.

Indeed, Graham Potter's men have drawn six and lost three in 2020 thus far, and their fixture list does not look all too friendly as they still have to face Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Leicester City in the next couple of months.

The outlook does not look good for the Seagulls as they lie in 15th, two points above the relegation zone after 29 matches, and they are without victory on home turf since their 2-0 win over Bournemouth back in December.

Brighton have performed relatively well against some of the Premier League's household names at the Amex, recording victories over Tottenham Hotspur and Everton while also holding Chelsea to a draw.

14th-placed Southampton are five points above Brighton so the Seagulls cannot rise any higher with a victory, but they could plunge into the relegation zone if they suffer defeat and West Ham United, Watford and Bournemouth all pick up wins this weekend.

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola and Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta pictured together on June 17, 2020© Reuters

Mikel Arteta returned to familiar surroundings as he reunited with Pep Guardiola at the Etihad on Wednesday, but the student was outdone by the master as Manchester City cruised to a 3-0 victory to end Arsenal's unbeaten run in 2020.

Facing a fully-fit City side was always going to be a difficult first game back, but the Gunners simply capitulated following injuries to Pablo Mari and Granit Xhaka before David Luiz was given his marching orders.

Since the turn of the year, Arteta had guided Arsenal to four draws and four wins in the Premier League before the enforced suspension, but a second 3-0 defeat to City this season means they remain eight points adrift of the top four in ninth.

To make matters worse, Burnley and Crystal Palace sit just one point behind the Gunners at this stage, and while it seems incomprehensible for the Gunners to finish in the bottom half of the table, they cannot afford any more performances like the one at the Etihad if they are to keep their European hopes alive.

The Gunners are now visiting a ground where they are yet to taste victory since Brighton's promotion to the top flight, and the Seagulls enjoyed a 2-1 win over Arsenal earlier in the campaign.

The clash between Brighton and Arsenal will be a momentous occasion as this is set to be the first 3pm Premier League game to be televised - potentially a good omen for the Gunners who have won 19 of their last 23 fixtures kicking off at this time.

Brighton Premier League form: LDDDLD

Arsenal Premier League form: DDWWWL
Arsenal form (all competitions): WWLWWL


Team News

Arsenal midfielder Granit Xhaka is stretchered off against Manchester City on June 17, 2020© Reuters

Brighton's only concern is winger Jose Izquierdo, who remains on the treatment table with a knee injury.

Other than that, Potter has a full selection of players available to him, with top scorer Neal Maupay aiming to increase his eight-goal tally as he leads the line for the Seagulls.

Arsenal's injury list continues to pile up as Mari and Xhaka will be forced to join Cedric Soares and Calum Chambers on the sidelines.

Luiz is suspended following his red card against City, but Sokratis may come back into the fold to provide some much-needed defensive cover for Arsenal.

In an all-too familiar sight this season, Mesut Ozil was absent from the Arsenal squad in midweek, and the German may not feature for this one either.

Arteta put his faith in youth products Bukayo Saka, Eddie Nketiah and Joe Willock for the trip to the Etihad, but it would be a surprise to see all three youngsters make the starting lineup against Brighton.

Brighton possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Montoya, Webster, Dunk, Burn; Mooy, Propper, Bissouma; March, Maupay, Trossard

Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Leno; Bellerin, Sokratis, Mustafi, Saka; Ceballos, Guendouzi; Pepe, Willock, Aubameyang; Lacazette


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Brighton 1-1 Arsenal

Arsenal's Premier League campaign could not have resumed in a more disastrous way, but Brighton have also had their fair share of poor results in recent months, so we think a draw is the most likely outcome between two sides who are in desperate need of wins.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 41.67%. A win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Brighton & Hove Albion win was 1-0 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.


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Neal Maupay celebrates equalising for Wolves against Brighton on December 8, 2019
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
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4Arsenal126422112922
5Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton126422116522
6Tottenham HotspurSpurs1261527131419
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8Aston Villa125431919019
9Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
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12Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
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19Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
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