Arsenal Sarandi and Sporting Cristal will square off in Copa Sudamericana action on Wednesday, in the second leg of their round-of-16 tie.
Wednesday's visitors come in with a 2-1 lead after a narrow victory in the home leg and will look to see a win out to book their spot in the quarter-finals.
Match preview
© Reuters
Arsenal Sarandi qualified for the knockout stage by topping their group, having collected 11 points from their six games, including a double over Jorge Wilstermann and a 3-1 win against Boliviar.
That brought some light to an otherwise disappointing campaign for the Argentinian outfit, as they finished 12th in their 13-team group in the first phase of the domestic top flight, although they have the chance to redeem themselves, having recently kicked off the second phase with a creditable 1-1 draw against San Lorenzo.
The strong showing in the Copa Sudamericana group stage saw Sergio Rondina's men handed a tough tie with Sporting Cristal, and they fell to a narrow defeat in the away leg, despite looking all but set to come away with a one-goal lead.
The game remained goalless until Nicolas Mazzola put Arsenal ahead in the 70th minute, and the hosts would eventually draw level through an Alejandro Hohberg penalty in the 90th minute before he scored his second to put them ahead in the eighth minute of added time, cruelly snatching a lead heading into the break of the two-legged affair.
Upon their return to home turf, Los del Viaducto will aim to overturn the one-goal deficit in order to advance to the quarter-finals.
To do that, they will have to get past a strong Sporting Cristal side who will aim to get their hands on continental silverware for the first time.
The Peruvian outfit find themselves in the Copa Sudamericana round of 16 after dropping out of the Copa Libertadores at the group stage.
They were handed a particularly tough group draw with Argentinian outfit Racing Club and Brazilian giants Sao Paulo taking the spots in the top two, but a 3-0 win over Rentistas in the penultimate round of fixtures saw them pip the Uruguayan side to third spot, allowing Los Cerveceros to drop into South America's second tournament.
While they did produce late heroics to come away from the home leg with a lead, Roberto Mosquera's men will know that they still have it all to do if they are to stay ahead and book their spot in the final eight, with the hosts undoubtedly throwing everything at them in an attempt to overturn the deficit.
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Team News
Despite being shown a red card in the dying minutes after hitting the equalising goal in the recent draw with San Lorenzo, Arsenal Sarandi centre-back Mateo Carabajal will be eligible to play on Wednesday, with the suspension instead carrying over to the next league game.
He should continue to play alongside Gaston Suso at the heart of the defensive line, shielding experienced stopper Alejandro Medina between the sticks.
In their pursuit of goals, they will again turn to forward Nicolas Mazzola, who opened the scoring in the first leg on his debut after joining the club from Panetolikos at the beginning of July.
Sporting Cristal winger Alejandro Hohberg returned from an injury for the first leg, and he netted a late brace to give them a lead before again finding the net last time out in league action.
He will play a key role in the forward line alongside the likes of Christofer Gonzalez, who has registered five goals and two assists in 15 appearances in all competitions so far this season.
Their only absentee should be winger Christopher Olivares, who is expected to continue a spell out of action through injury.
That will see Irven Avila keep his place in the front line on the opposite flank to danger man Hohberg.
Arsenal Sarandi possible starting lineup:
Medina; Benavidez, Carabajal, Suso, Papa; Larralde, Picco, Andrada, Castro; Mazzola, Albertengo
Sporting Cristal possible starting lineup:
Duarte; Lora, Merlo, Chavez, Loyola; Calcaterra, Castillo; Avila, Gonzalez, Hohberg; Riquelme
We say: Arsenal Sarandi 3-1 Sporting Cristal
Arsenal Sarandi dominated the majority of the first leg and were unfortunate to be on the wrong end of the result, but they should have enough to overturn the deficit on Wednesday and come out on top.
With home advantage, the Argentinian outfit will fancy themselves to pick up the required two-goal victory to confirm their passage to the final eight.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Sarandi win with a probability of 49.77%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Sporting Cristal had a probability of 24.48%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Sarandi win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.43%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.2%), while for a Sporting Cristal win it was 0-1 (7.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
