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Armenia national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage
Nov 14, 2021 at 5pm UK
 
Germany national football team

Armenia
1 - 4
Germany

Mkhitaryan (59' pen.)
Voskanyan (45+3')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Havertz (15'), Gundogan (45+4' pen., 50'), Hofmann (64')
Neuhaus (54'), Arnold (68')

Preview: Armenia vs. Germany - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's World Cup Qualifying - Europe clash between Armenia and Germany, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Germany will seek to round off a near flawless World Cup 2022 Qualifying campaign in perfect fashion when they travel to Armenia for the final matchday on Sunday night.

Hansi Flick's side are riding off into the sunset at the top of Group J, while their hosts still have the slimmest chance of claiming second spot and a path into the playoffs.


Match preview

Armenia's Henrikh Mkhitaryan celebrates with teammates on September 8, 2021© Reuters

Armenia need nothing short of a miracle to pip North Macedonia or Romania to the playoff place in Group J now, but it is still mathematically possible for the world's 89th-ranked nation to clinch second spot, even though they were humbled on matchday nine.

Indeed, Enis Bardhi struck a hat-trick while Aleksandar Trajkovski and Milan Ristovski netted in a comprehensive 5-0 win for North Macedonia on Thursday night, which leaves Armenia's hopes of keeping the Qatar dream alive hanging by the thinnest of threads.

The fourth-placed hosts find themselves two points behind Romania and three behind North Macedonia with one game left to play, and their inferior goal difference will likely see them come up short even if results elsewhere go their way this weekend.

Joaquin Caparros's side made a remarkable start to Group J with three wins from their opening three games, but as expected, Armenia have been unable to keep that momentum going and are now winless in their last six qualifying battles.

However, only two games of their eight-match winless streak across all tournaments have come at home - where they had previously gone unbeaten in six - so the hosts will desperately seek to consign Thursday's thrashing to history and produce one of the most memorable results their home crowd has ever witnessed.

Germany boss Hansi Flick pictured in August 2021© Reuters

Even with a COVID-ravaged squad, the only question surrounding Germany's battle with Liechtenstein on Thursday night was how many goals Flick's side would chalk up, and the record-breaking coach witnessed his side hit nine without reply at the Volkswagen Arena.

With their opponents a man down after the ninth minute due to Jens Hofer's horror challenge on Leon Goretzka, Die Mannschaft ran riot, with Leroy Sane and Thomas Muller both bagging braces while Ridle Baku scored his first goal for the national team in a 9-0 thumping.

Such an emphatic victory saw Flick become the first German men's coach to win his first six games in charge, and even with his side safely through to next year's tournament, the former Bayern Munich coach showed no mercy with a strong XI.

Flick's rampant Germany have now taken 24 points from a possible 27 in Group J - scoring a continent-high 32 goals and conceding just three in the process - and Die Mannschaft can afford to take their foot off the gas for the final matchday.

Germany travel to Yerevan on an astonishing 17-game winning streak away from home in World Cup qualifying, and their meeting with Armenia on home soil back in September ended in a comprehensive 6-0 success for the table-toppers.

Armenia World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L

Germany World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Chelsea's Kai Havertz celebrates scoring their second goal on May 1, 2021© Reuters

Armenia will welcome a host of players back from bans this week, as Sargis Adamyan, Eduard Spertsyan, Varazdat Haroyan and Taron Voskanyan all missed the defeat to North Macedonia.

Haroyan ought to slot straight back into the hosts' rearguard, while Hoffenheim's Adamyan has a strong chance of leading the line against some of his Bundesliga colleagues.

Experienced midfielder Artak Grigoryan could be reintroduced to the middle of the park, as Henrikh Mkhitaryan takes his place on the left flank.

Meanwhile, Germany's squad was ravaged by coronavirus before the meeting with Liechtenstein, as Niklas Sule's positive test also forced Joshua Kimmich, Jamal Musiala, Karim Adeyemi and Serge Gnabry into quarantine.

Chelsea's Kai Havertz missed the 9-0 drubbing due to suspension but is also nursing a minor thigh issue, while Marc-Andre ter Stegen watched on from the stands last time out and will hope to edge out Manuel Neuer for a start here.

Matthias Ginter, Florian Neuhaus and Kevin Volland are also among those who could be reintroduced to the first XI for this inconsequential battle, with Antonio Rudiger set to miss out due to suspension, but Florian Wirtz and Nico Schlotterbeck will not be involved due to injuries.

Armenia possible starting lineup:
Yurchenko; Terteryan, Haroyan, Calisir, Margaryan; Grigoryan, Udo; Barseghyan, Zelarayan, Mkhitaryan; Adamyan

Germany possible starting lineup:
Ter Stegen; Kehrer, Ginter, Tah, Raum; Neuhaus, Gundogan; Baku, Brandt, Nmecha; Volland


SM words green background

We say: Armenia 0-4 Germany

Even with a much-changed and ravaged squad, Germany's potent youngsters possess the necessary firepower to chalk up another emphatic win over their confidence-depleted hosts.

Armenia's strong start to Group J has since become a nightmare, and Caparros's side will surely be kept waiting for their World Cup bow as Flick's men run riot.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 64.07%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Armenia had a probability of 14.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.49%) and 1-2 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.13%), while for an Armenia win it was 1-0 (5.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Armenia vs Germany

Armenia
13.9%
Draw
7.9%
Germany
78.2%
101
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Germany players celebrate after the match October 11, 2021
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