AFC Champions League | Group Stage

Dec 12, 2023 at 10am UK

Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium

Johor Darul
4 - 1
Pathum Utd

Bergson (55' pen., 66'), Endrick (86'), Aiman (90+2')
Heberty (26'), Davies (89')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Sergeev (28')
Stewart (22'), Alves (38'), Sergeev (67')
Alves (53')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the AFC Champions League Group Stage clash between Johor Darul Ta'zim and BG Pathum United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Johor Darul Ta'zim

Last Game: Kawasaki 5-0 Johor Darul
Tuesday, November 28 at 10am in AFC Champions League

BG Pathum United

Last Game: Pathum Utd 1-3 Ulsan
Tuesday, November 28 at 10am in AFC Champions League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Johor Darul Ta'zim win with a probability of 69.06%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for BG Pathum United had a probability of 13.54%.

The most likely scoreline for a Johor Darul Ta'zim win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 1-0 (8.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.92%), while for a BG Pathum United win it was 1-2 (3.89%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Johor Darul Ta'zim would win this match.

Result
Johor Darul Ta'zim	Draw	BG Pathum United
69.06% ( -0.21)	17.4% ( 0.04)	13.54% ( 0.16)

Both teams to score 56.97% (

0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.04% (

0.2)

33.95% (

-0.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.19% (

0.23)

55.81% (

-0.23)

Johor Darul Ta'zim Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.09% (

8.9% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

69.57% (

0.01)

30.43% (

-0.02)

BG Pathum United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.54% (

0.37)

37.46% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.76% (

0.36)

74.24% (

-0.36)

Score Analysis

Johor Darul Ta'zim 69.06%

BG Pathum United 13.54%

Draw 17.4%

Johor Darul Ta'zim	Draw	BG Pathum United
2-0 @ 9.75% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 9.58% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.06% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 7.87% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 7.72% ( 0) 4-0 @ 4.76% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 4.67% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.79% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 2.3% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 2.26% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) 6-1 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 3.04% Total : 69.06%	1-1 @ 7.92% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.7% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 3.33% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.2% Total : 17.4%	1-2 @ 3.89% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 3.27% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1.61% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.96% Total : 13.54%