Champions League semi-finalists Villarreal will be bidding to put pressure on sixth-placed Real Sociedad in the La Liga table when they travel to Rayo Vallecano on Thursday night.
The Yellow Submarine are currently seventh, three points behind Real Sociedad in sixth, while Rayo occupy 12th position, boasting 42 points from their 35 league matches this season.
Match preview
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Having been promoted back to this level via the Segunda Division playoffs last term, consolidating back in the top flight was always going to be Rayo's number one priority, and they will once again be a La Liga outfit during the 2022-23 campaign.
Indeed, a record of 11 wins, nine draws and 15 defeats from 35 matches has brought them 42 points, which is enough for 12th position in the table at this moment in time, 10 points clear of 18th-placed Mallorca with three games left.
Rayo are not under any severe pressure heading into the final straight, but they will be desperate to finish as high as possible, and they are only two points behind 10th-placed Valencia, so a position in the top half of the division is certainly achievable.
The capital outfit will bring a four-game unbeaten run into Thursday's contest, beating Espanyol and Barcelona in back-to-back matches towards the end of last month before sharing the points with Real Sociedad and Getafe in their last two.
Andoni Iraola's side have won eight times in front of their own supporters in La Liga this term and will be welcoming a Villarreal side that only have the 12th-best away record, but the Yellow Submarine have plenty to fight for in the final stages of the campaign.
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Villarreal incredibly reached the Champions League semi-finals by dispatching Bayern Munich in the last eight, but their journey in the competition came to an end in the final four, losing 5-2 on aggregate to Liverpool, who will take on Real Madrid in the final later this month.
Unai Emery's side have actually lost three of their last four matches in all competitions, with their last league success coming at home to Valencia on April 19, but they picked up a welcome point against Sevilla last time out, with Giovani Lo Celso netting late on before Jules Kounde levelled for Sevilla in the 95th minute.
Villarreal are currently seventh in the table, three points behind sixth-placed Real Sociedad in the race to secure a Europa League position, and Real Sociedad have a tough game at home to Cadiz on Thursday, so a lot could have changed by the time that this match is complete.
Emery's team will actually take on the Basque outfit in their penultimate match of the season on May 15 before heading to Barcelona on May 22, so they will have to do it the hard way if the club are to book their spot in next season's Europa League.
The Yellow Submarine have won their last two league games against Rayo, including a 2-0 victory in the reverse match earlier this season, but the two teams played out a 2-2 draw in their last clash in Madrid in November 2018.
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Team News
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Rayo will again be missing Martin Merquelanz through injury, while Isi Palazon is out for the rest of the season with the shoulder injury that he picked up against Getafe.
As a result, Bebe could come in for a start on Thursday night, while there might be a change in the final third of the field, with Sergi Guardiola bidding to replace Randy Nteka.
Radamel Falcao is also in contention to start for the home team, but there will be no Pathe Ciss on Thursday evening, as the 28-year-old is suspended following his red card in the clash with Getafe.
As for Villarreal, Gerard Moreno and Alberto Moreno will again miss the match through injury, but the visitors could potentially have Yeremi Pino and Arnaut Danjuma back in their squad.
The team is likely to be similar to the one that took to the field against Sevilla last time out, with Lo Celso potentially operating just behind Boulaye Dia in attack, although Paco Alcacer is also pushing for a start.
If neither Pino nor Danjuma are deemed fit enough to start then Samuel Chukwueze could again feature in a wide area, while Francis Coquelin, Dani Parejo and Etienne Capoue should again all start in midfield.
Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Dimitrievski; Balliu, M Suarez, Catena, F Garcia; Comesana, Valentin; Bebe, Trejo, A Garcia; Guardiola
Villarreal possible starting lineup:
Rulli; Foyth, Albiol, P Torres, Estupinan; Chukwueze, Capoue, Parejo, Coquelin; Lo Celso; Dia
We say: Rayo Vallecano 2-2 Villarreal
Villarreal need the points more than Rayo, but the home side's recent form must be respected, therefore this is a difficult match to call. It would not be a surprise to see a home or away victory on Thursday, but we believe that the two teams could ultimately cancel each other out in an entertaining draw.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 38.76%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Top tip
Matt Law
