The surprise team of Major League Soccer so far will look to upset one of the elite teams in the Western Conference as Austin FC battle Sporting Kansas City for the first time in team history on Sunday.
The newest MLS franchise are on a two-game winning streak after blanking Minnesota 1-0 last Saturday, while Sporting KC are looking for their first victory of the season at Children's Mercy Park.
Match preview
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After coming back to beat the New York Red Bulls 2-1 in their opening game, Peter Vermes and his side have hit a speedbump, squandering a 1-0 lead in each of their past two games, a 1-1 draw with Orlando and a 3-1 defeat to Real Salt Lake last weekend.
In 2020 the Wizards' longest winless streak was four games, and they will want to stop that from happening again against the newest team in Major League Soccer.
Over the off-season, KC brought in a lot of youth to the side, and so far in this campaign, it appears they will have to learn how to finish off the opposition.
Last season with a much more experienced squad, Kansas City lost only one regular-season game when scoring the opening goal as they finished first in the Western Conference.
Vermes will hope they can tighten up defensively, which has been a problem for them when playing at home.
In their last three games played at Children's Mercy Park, including the 2020 playoffs, they have conceded seven times.
Austin's rookie manager Josh Wolff has fond memories of Kansas City, scoring 43 times in 144 appearances with the club.
This expansion team may lack experience at this level, but their youthful exuberance has propelled them to back-to-back road victories in a short period.
With six points from their opening three matches, Los Verdes are off to the best regular-season start for an MLS franchise playing in their inaugural campaign.
A victory on Sunday would make them just the third side in league history to win three consecutive games on the road in their first season.
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Team News
Goalkeeper Tim Melia could miss his fourth straight match with a chest injury, and reserve keeper Brooks Thompson continues to have back problems, while right-back Graham Zusi has a foot injury.
Homegrown Player Kayden Pierre could start at full-back after signing a four-year contract earlier this week.
Roger Espinoza will hope to make his 230th career start for the Wizards, currently sitting third all-time among KC players in that department.
Ulises Segura and Aaron Schoenfeld remain sidelined with knee injuries, while left-back Ben Sweat could be out long term due to a cruciate ligament rupture.
Austin centre-back Matt Besler will be eager to show KC they made a mistake at the end of last season when they released the most capped player in franchise history.
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Pulskamp; Martins, Fontas, Rad, Lindsey; Busio, llie, Espinoza; Salloi, Pulido, Shelton
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Kolmanic, Besler, Romana, Lima, Pereira, Ring, Pochettino; Dominguez, Hoesen, Stroud
We say: Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Austin FC
Expansion teams have had a lot of success in their opening regular season except when facing the Wizards. Kansas City have lost only one of the last five regular-season games versus an expansion side playing in their inaugural campaign in MLS.
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 61.75%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 18.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.47%) and 1-0 (7.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.74%), while for an Austin FC win it was 1-2 (5.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sporting Kansas City in this match.
