Both battling for their Serie A survival with time running out, Spezia and Venezia meet on Saturday afternoon at Stadio Alberto Picco.
While the hosts have taken just three points from their last six games, their visitors have lost four on the spin to slump to second-bottom in the standings.
Match preview
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After four straight Serie A defeats brought Spezia's bright start to 2022 to a definitive end, concerns about relegation resurfaced at the Ligurian club.
They may have returned to winning ways with a 2-0 home victory over relegation rivals Cagliari, but just before the international break, the Aquilotti were heavily beaten by in-form Sassuolo.
Their 4-1 reverse at the Mapei Stadium sees Thiago Motta's men sitting 16th in the table, but still seven points above the dreaded dotted line. Therefore, there remains every chance that they will extend their first-ever spell in Calcio's top tier to a third consecutive season.
However, Motta's concerns will have grown more acute, as a tally of five losses from their last six Serie A matches is as many as in their previous 15. Indeed, since the start of February, no team has suffered more league defeats - with only Venezia matching that mark.
That means Spezia - who won 2-1 in September's reverse fixture thanks to Mehdi Bourabia's stoppage-time strike - will now look to stop the rot by completing a league double over the Lagunari for the very first time.
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Currently sitting seven points behind Saturday's opponents in 18th spot, though still with a game in hand, Venezia have lost each of their last four league games.
Paolo Zanetti's side have won only once in Serie A since November, which leaves them in the thick of the relegation battle with just nine games to go.
Entering April with their destiny still very much in their own hands - as they trail 17th-placed Cagliari by three points but still have that extra fixture to fulfill - Venezia's multinational squad will reconvene after the break needing to approach the final furlong with renewed vigour.
The Arancioneroverdi signed off March with a 2-0 defeat to fellow strugglers Sampdoria, in which they were already two goals behind before half time, and any lingering hopes of a comeback were ultimately quashed when French forward Thomas Henry was sent off late on.
After travelling to Liguria this weekend, Venezia also meet Udinese and Salernitana in the coming weeks, and will surely have to pick up points from such fixtures if they are to avoid an immediate return to Serie B.
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Team News
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Thiago Motta's midfield options have been given a boost ahead of his side's return to Serie A action, as Jacopo Sala returned to full training during the week, while Mehdi Bourabia - the matchwinner when Spezia last met Saturday's opponents - also hopes to be involved after injury, but may have to wait a while longer.
After starting without a conventional striker in the loss to Sassuolo, Motta is expected to revert to a lone frontman flanked by two wide players, so Rey Manaj should replace Viktor Kovalenko in the hosts' lineup. The Barcelona loanee has scored three times in his last six Serie A appearances - as many as in his previous 32.
Following his goal at the Mapei Stadium, Daniele Verde is set to support the Albania international, alongside Emmanuel Gyasi.
Meanwhile, with goalkeepers Sergio Romero and Luca Lezzerini both unavailable due to injury, Venezia will be forced to field veteran back-up Niki Maenpaa again, despite his costly error in the defeat to Sampdoria.
Due to his dismissal against Samp, Thomas Henry misses out through suspension, so Paolo Zanetti - who will be absent from the touchline after being sent off himself last time out - decides between loan signing Jean-Pierre Nsame and David Okereke as his central striker.
Mattia Aramu should feature in the visitors' attack too, but despite netting five goals and providing four assists so far this season he is yet to score even once on the road.
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Amian, Erlic, Nikolaou, Reca; Maggiore, Kiwior, Bastoni; Verde, Manaj, Gyasi
Venezia possible starting lineup:
Maenpaa; Ebuehi, Caldara, Ceccaroni, Haps; Ampadu, Vacca, Crnigoj; Aramu, Nsame, Okereke
We say: Spezia 2-1 Venezia
Spezia have picked up 22 of their 29 league points against teams in the bottom half of the table, and that share (76%) represents the highest throughout Serie A this season.
Also considering Venezia's travails in front of goal - they have not scored in over 200 minutes - the home side should be favoured to edge this one at the Picco.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 46.05%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 26.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.11%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.83%), while for a Venezia win it was 0-1 (9.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Spezia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Spezia.
