Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 38.87%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 33.32% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.14%) and 0-2 (7.21%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 1-0 (10.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.