Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 44.35%. A win for St Johnstone had a probability of 28.64% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (8.36%). The likeliest St Johnstone win was 1-0 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Kilmarnock would win this match.
Result | ||
St Johnstone | Draw | Kilmarnock |
28.64% ( 0.03) | 27% ( 0.01) | 44.35% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 48.68% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.83% ( -0.02) | 56.16% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.77% ( -0.02) | 77.22% ( 0.01) |
St Johnstone Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.07% ( 0.01) | 34.93% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.33% ( 0.01) | 71.67% ( -0.01) |
Kilmarnock Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.81% ( -0.03) | 25.18% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.09% ( -0.04) | 59.91% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
St Johnstone | Draw | Kilmarnock |
1-0 @ 9.25% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 6.71% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.87% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.35% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.71% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.62% Other @ 2.13% Total : 28.64% | 1-1 @ 12.75% 0-0 @ 8.8% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0) Other @ 0.82% Total : 26.99% | 0-1 @ 12.12% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.8% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.36% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.04% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.84% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.39% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.33% ( -0) Other @ 2.33% Total : 44.34% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Celtic | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 64 | 11 | 53 | 60 |
2 | RangersRangers | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 44 | 18 | 26 | 47 |
3 | Dundee UnitedDundee Utd | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 37 |
4 | Aberdeen | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 35 |
5 | Motherwell | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 31 |
6 | Hibernian | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 29 |
7 | Dundee | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 27 |
8 | St Mirren | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 27 |
9 | Kilmarnock | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 25 |
10 | Ross County | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 42 | -19 | 25 |
11 | Hearts | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 24 |
12 | St Johnstone | 23 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 25 | 47 | -22 | 15 |
> Scottish Premiership Full Table |