San Jose Earthquakes and DC United square off on Saturday night having both endured mixed starts to the new MLS campaign.
The teams have one win apiece from their opening two games, leaving the clubs in mid-table of the Western Conference and Eastern Conference respectively.
Match preview
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After losing out to Houston Dynamo on matchday one, the Earthquakes were under pressure to deliver an improved performance against Dallas last weekend.
Matias Almeyda's side responded to those demands, running out convincing 3-1 winners with each strike coming during the opening hour of the contest.
Having conceded too many goals at the end of the last campaign, Almeyda will naturally be keen for his side to end a run of five matches without keeping a clean sheet.
Nevertheless, controlling the game with Dallas was a much-needed step in the right direction as they bid to avoid another year spent in mid-table.
Highly-rated 17-year-old Cade Cowell has already chipped in with a goal and an assist this season, increasing expectations that the forward could emerge as the best prospect in the division.
DC United started their campaign with an excellent 2-1 triumph over New York City FC, coming from behind to defeat a team who finished in seventh position in the regular standings in 2020.
While succumbing 1-0 at New England Revolution last weekend came as a blow, Hernan Losada will be satisfied with his team's efforts during the opening double-header.
The Black-and-Red now have successive away trips to the Earthquakes and Columbus Crew, the latter being a team who prevailed in the MLS Playoffs last season.
Although the tough fixtures coming to come thick and fast for Losada's side, he will be optimistic that his side can stay away from the bottom end of the standings throughout this campaign.
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Team News
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The Earthquakes will be without Chris Wondolowski after his late dismissal in the last fixture.
With his red card coming after his introduction as a substitute, Almeyda will give consideration to selecting the same starting lineup.
Should Luciano Abecasis pass a late fitness test, he will be kept among the replacements.
Losada is unlikely to make major alterations to his DC United XI at a time that he is having to cope with a mounting injury list.
Donovan Pines and Antonio Alfaro are competing for one spot in the back three, but English youngster Kimarni Smith will likely remain on the bench.
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Thompson, Jungwirth, Alanis, Marie; Yueill, Remedi; Espinoza, Lopez, Fierro; Cowell
DC United possible starting lineup:
Seitz; Pines, Brillant, Hines-Ike; Gressel, Canouse, Moreno, Mora; Asad, Flores; Sorga
We say: San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 DC United
Despite losing their last game, DC United have, on paper, had the tougher start to the campaign. With that in mind, we are backing the visitors to claim all three points at the weekend, withstanding the efforts of opponents who will be on a high after last weekend's victory.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 61.38%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for DC United had a probability of 18.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.37%) and 1-0 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a DC United win it was 1-2 (4.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that San Jose Earthquakes would win this match.
