A pair of sides on the outside looking in when it comes to the MLS playoff picture will do battle on Friday as Real Salt Lake host the Vancouver Whitecaps at Rio Tinto Stadium.
Claret and Cobalt have drawn their last three matches before the international break, while the Caps have lost their previous three encounters away from home.
Match preview
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After an impressive start to their 2021 campaign, winning their opening two fixtures, things have gone sour for Freddy Juarez and his side, who are winless in their last four matches and have failed to win their last four games on home soil.
They cannot seem to close out a match and finish the job, squandering two late leads, first losing to the San Jose Earthquakes and then conceding to Minnesota United in the 78th minute in a 1-1 draw despite taking the lead in the 13th minute.
An odd statistic that has haunted this team thus far in 2021 is the fact that they have scored the opening goal four times this year but have only come away with all three points once, in their opening regular season fixture against Minnesota.
As the pressure mounts and the match gets into the homestretch, Salt Lake seem to be at their worst, having conceded over 71% of their goals beyond the 75th minute of play, and they are fifth in MLS when it comes to giving up goals in the second half of matches.
It is not just a lack of results at home that are concerning, but the fact that they have rarely looked threatening, with less than 50% of the possession in their previous three home fixtures and firing five shots or fewer on target in each of those games.
As they get set to play two matches in five days, they will want to get back to winning ways against a side who are struggling even more than they are.
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If there was one team that needed a two-week break in MLS, it was the Whitecaps, who are in the midst of a three-match losing run, where they have been outscored 6-1.
Marc Dos Santos saw his side carry the play in their last match against the Houston Dynamo, but they could only fire two shots on target in a 2-1 loss to Orange Crush.
Rio Tinto Stadium will be a field that the Caps are very familiar with, having played all of their home games there so far, winning their only two fixtures of the season in Salt Lake City and conceding only one goal in all three of their matches played there.
The schedule does not get any easier for Vancouver as they will face the LA Galaxy and the Seattle Sounders following this match, so they will be desperate for a victory to boost their confidence.
Vancouver will also know that a win could dramatically change their fortunes, as they are only two points behind the Portland Timbers for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
However, there are three other teams ahead of them in the table, including Salt Lake, so we should expect to see a greater sense of urgency from the Caps, who will try to start earning more points and gaining some ground in the standings.
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Team News
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Midfielder Damir Kreilach has really picked up his game with Salt Lake, scoring a goal in back-to-back encounters and leading the team in assists with three.
Goalkeeper Zac MacMath started in place of David Ochoa, who was on the bench for the United States in their 4-0 win against Costa Rica in a friendly last Wednesday.
The Whitecaps are still waiting for wing back Ali Adnan to be available to return as they continue to try and sort out his visa situation, which has kept him out of the lineup all season.
Their top goalscorer from 2020, Lucas Cavallini, is without a goal in his last six games, with his only one coming in their opening match victory against the Portland Timbers.
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Herrera, Glad, Silva, Brody; Ruiz, Besler; Julio, Kreilach, Rusnak; Rubin
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Brown, Rose, Godoy, Gaspar; Owusu, Alexandre; Teibert, Caicedo, Dajome; Cavallini
We say: Real Salt Lake 2-1 Vancouver Whitecaps
There has been very little to choose between these two sides in the last two seasons, with the Whitecaps winning both encounters in 2020 by a 2-1 score and Real Salt Lake winning both games in 2019, 1-0.
With both teams struggling to earn results, and desperate not to fall too far behind in the playoff race, it could come down to a piece of individual brilliance, and for that, you have to give the edge to Salt Lake, who have match-winners like Rubio Rubin and Damir Kreilach at their disposal.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Salt Lake win with a probability of 61.42%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 18.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Salt Lake win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.85%) and 1-0 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.07%), while for a Vancouver Whitecaps win it was 1-2 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Salt Lake would win this match.
