Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 87.04%. A draw had a probability of 8.8% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 4.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.42%) and 4-0 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.11%), while for a SC Farense win it was 1-2 (1.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | SC Farense |
87.04% ( 0.63) | 8.84% ( -0.23) | 4.12% ( -0.39) |
Both teams to score 46.16% ( -2.64) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
75.61% ( -1.14) | 24.39% ( 1.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
55.88% ( -1.53) | 44.11% ( 1.53) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
96.34% ( -0.09) | 3.66% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
84.24% ( -0.3) | 15.75% ( 0.3) |
SC Farense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
47.91% ( -2.69) | 52.09% ( 2.69) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
13.93% ( -1.83) | 86.07% ( 1.83) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | SC Farense |
3-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.62) 2-0 @ 10.42% ( 0.63) 4-0 @ 9.51% ( 0.44) 3-1 @ 7.5% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.1) 1-0 @ 6.3% ( 0.43) 5-0 @ 6.29% ( 0.25) 4-1 @ 6.2% ( -0.19) 5-1 @ 4.11% ( -0.16) 6-0 @ 3.47% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.26) 6-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.11) 4-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.23) 7-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.04) 5-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.16) 7-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.06) Other @ 4.15% Total : 87.02% | 1-1 @ 4.11% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.22) 0-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.14) Other @ 0.61% Total : 8.84% | 1-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 1.24% Other @ 1.54% Total : 4.12% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 14 | 34 | 41 |
2 | Porto | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 40 |
3 | Benfica | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 11 | 27 | 38 |
4 | Braga | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 31 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 16 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 30 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 25 |
7 | Casa Pia | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 23 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 22 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 19 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 19 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 18 |
12 | Estrela Amadora | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 16 |
13 | AVS | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 15 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 15 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 15 |
16 | Nacional | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 13 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 13 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 12 |
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