Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 72.78%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 10.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 3-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.59%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-2 (3.24%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Braga | Draw | Casa Pia |
72.78% ( -0.58) | 16.26% ( 0.3) | 10.95% ( 0.28) |
Both teams to score 52.6% ( -0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.59% ( -0.68) | 35.41% ( 0.68) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.55% ( -0.76) | 57.45% ( 0.76) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.56% ( -0.29) | 8.44% ( 0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.69% ( -0.73) | 29.31% ( 0.72) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.46% ( 0.03) | 42.54% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.1% ( 0.02) | 78.9% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Braga | Draw | Casa Pia |
2-0 @ 10.97% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 9.04% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 8.88% ( 0.18) 3-1 @ 7.73% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 5.59% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 2.76% ( -0.1) 5-1 @ 2.36% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.04) 6-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.06) 5-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.04) 6-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.83% Total : 72.78% | 1-1 @ 7.59% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 4.01% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 3.59% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 16.26% | 1-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 3.07% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.27% Total : 10.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 18 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 51 | 14 | 37 | 44 |
2 | Benfica | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 14 | 27 | 40 |
4 | Braga | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 34 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 31 |
6 | Casa Pia | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 27 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 26 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 23 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 21 |
11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 20 |
13 | Nacional | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 19 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 16 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 16 |
16 | SC FarenseFarense | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 15 |
17 | AVS | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 12 |
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