A place in the 2025 CONCACAF Champions Cup will be up for grabs on Sunday when the Philadelphia Union host the Colorado Rapids at Subaru Park in the Leagues Cup third-place playoff.
Earlier this week, the Union were eliminated from this competition, losing 3-1 to the Columbus Crew, while the Burgundy Boys saw their cup run end with a 4-0 defeat versus Los Angeles FC.
Match preview
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For a second successive campaign, Philadelphia will have to settle for, at best, third place in this competition after struggling to contain the high-octane Crew attack in the semi-finals.
In that defeat, Jim Curtin saw his side concede as many goals as they had in their previous three Leagues Cup outings combined (three).
The Union will be back in front of their home fans for this encounter, having emerged victorious in 10 of their 11 matches played at Subaru Park in this competition.
They are riding a seven-match unbeaten run in Chester across all competitions, conceding a goal or fewer in each of those encounters.
Last year, the Union won this third-place encounter at home to Monterrey 3-0, and a victory this Sunday will assure them a place in the Champions Cup for a third successive season.
Philly are unbeaten in their previous five meetings versus the Rapids at Subaru Park, collecting a massive 6-0 home triumph against them the last time around in 2022.
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For over 40 minutes, the Rapids did a marvellous job of shutting off the spaces and making life difficult for the Black and Gold in that semi-final clash.
With a team like LAFC, though, all it takes is one lapse in concentration for everything to change, and Colorado gave up two goals in the final three minutes of the opening half and could not recover.
Chris Armas's men are still winless in normal time away from Dick's Sporting Goods Park in this tournament and are without a 90-minute triumph in five consecutive matches played outside Commerce City.
Should they emerge victorious on Sunday, it would end that run and give them a place in the Champions Cup for the first time since 2022.
Colorado have only suffered one defeat in six meetings versus Eastern Conference opponents in the 2024 Major League Soccer (MLS) season, losing 2-1 at FC Cincinnati in April.
The Burgundy Boys are winless in their last three games against Philly and have not beaten them at Subaru Park since the 2012 MLS campaign (2-1).
Team News
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In their semi-final defeat, the Union were missing their leading goalscorer Tai Baribo (five goals) through suspension, as Quinn Sullivan took his place in the attack, while Isaiah LeFlore was sidelined with a right knee injury.
Daniel Gazdag briefly put his team level against Columbus with a goal just past the half-hour mark, the second for the Hungarian in the competition this year.
On Thursday, the Rapids did not have Kevin Cabral available due to a sore elbow, Jackson Travis was an unused substitute because of a stress fracture and Daniel Chacon sat out with a knee injury.
Earlier this week, Colorado officially transferred centre-back Moise Bombito to Nice in Ligue 1 for a club-record fee of over £5m, which could reach over £7m with add-ons.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Harriel, Glesnes, Elliott, Wagner; Flach; Bedoya, McGlynn; Gazdag; Adeniran, Uhre
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Steffen; Rosenberry, Abubakar, Maxso, Vines; Larraz, Bassett; Fernandez, Mihailovic, Lewis; Navarro
We say: Philadelphia Union 1-0 Colorado Rapids
Both teams have played some fine football throughout this tournament, but we are leaning towards the Union because, overall, their backline has looked much more stable and consistent of late than the Rapids.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 51.88%. A win for Colorado Rapids had a probability of 25.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Colorado Rapids win was 1-2 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
Joel Lefevre
