One of the most unlikely matchups we could have anticipated heading into the 2024 MLS Cup playoffs will transpire on Sunday as Orlando City face Atlanta United in the Eastern Conference semi-finals at Inter & Co Stadium.
The Lions advanced past Charlotte FC in the previous phase, winning game three on penalties, while the Five Stripes shocked everyone by eliminating Inter Miami in round one, claiming a 3-2 triumph in that decisive third match.
Match preview
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Just when all looked lost, Orlando City found a lifeline in the latter stages of their must-win fixture with Charlotte, levelling that match in the 12th minute of stoppage time, the latest regulation goal in club history.
They kept their cool in the shootout, converting all of their penalties to advance into the second round of the playoffs for a second successive campaign.
Oscar Pareja's side now have a chance to advance into the Eastern Conference final for the first time in club history after losing a heartbreaker at home at this stage last year to the eventual champions, the Columbus Crew (2-0 in extra time).
Orlando head into this encounter having won seven of their previous eight competitive home fixtures against MLS opposition, conceding a goal or fewer in each of those triumphs.
Throughout the regular season, the Lions have had great success operating down the left, creating 9.36 goals on that side of the attacking half, per American Soccer Analysis.
They have never lost a post-season fixture at home when scoring the opening goal, winning their last five matches at Inter & Co Stadium after drawing first blood.
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In an opening round littered with surprises in the Eastern Conference, the biggest occurred in Fort Lauderdale, where Atlanta stunned Lionel Messi and the Supporters' Shield winners Inter Miami.
Over two weeks have passed since they pulled off the greatest playoff upset in league history, with the Five Stripes now in line to make the Eastern Conference final for the first time since 2019.
Rob Valentino's men have a chance on Sunday to win three successive MLS encounters for the first time all year, and counting the 2024 playoffs, they have suffered just one defeat in their previous seven domestic games (2-1 versus Inter Miami).
If you include the playoffs, they are unbeaten in their last eight league contests in which they have found the back of the net multiple times.
Since replacing Gonzalo Pineda to become the interim manager, Valentino has relied on sitting deep, limiting shots and burying the few opportunities they may have going forward, with his side scoring on three of their four targeted efforts against the Herons in game three despite only possessing 35% of the ball.
The Five Stripes were the last team to beat Orlando City on their home field (2-1), winning two of their previous three visits to Inter & Co Stadium.
Team News
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Orlando City were without Mason Stajduhar the last time out, as he is recovering from a lower leg injury, which will likely keep him out of this match.
Facundo Torres rescued his team with an equaliser in the latter stages of game three, setting the stage for Pedro Gallese to be the hero, stopping two Charlotte penalties before Rafael Santos sent them through by converting their fourth spot kick.
Atlanta will be without Brooks Lennon this weekend after he underwent surgery on his dislocated shoulder, Edwin Mosquera will be sidelined due to a knee issue and Quentin Westberg is out with a head injury.
Jamal Thiare notched a brace in the opening half of their deciding game versus Miami, with Bartosz Slisz scoring the winner 14 minutes from the end, though Brad Guzan was the star, making eight splendid saves to seal the victory.
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Thorhallsson, Schlegel, Jansson, Santos; Araujo, Cartagena; Torres, Ojeda, Angulo; Enrique
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; Hernandez, Williams, Abram; Lobzhanidze, Slisz, McCarty, Muyumba, Fortune; Thiare, Miranchuk
We say: Orlando City 2-0 Atlanta United
Eliminating Lionel Messi and friends is something those Five Stripe players will remember for the rest of their lives, but it will be hard to refocus after such an emotional triumph.
Against Orlando, they are unlikely to find as many gaps in behind because the Lions are well-structured defensively, and we expect the overall balance of Pareja's side to lead them to the conference finals.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
