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Major League Soccer
Oct 3, 2024 at 12.30am UK
BMO Field
New York Red Bulls

Toronto
1 - 4
NY Red Bulls

Osei Owusu (66' pen.)
Osorio (30'), Bernardeschi (43'), Thompson (80')
Bernardeschi (75')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Forsberg (27' pen.), Tolkin (48'), Morgan (69' pen.), Manoel (88')
Meara (23'), Reyes (38')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and New York Red Bulls, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Chicago Fire 1-1 Toronto
Sunday, September 29 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY Red Bulls 1-5 NY City
Sunday, September 29 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Toronto 2-1 New York Red Bulls

With only two matches remaining, Toronto have to pull out all the stops, and we expect their urgency will propel them to a victory against a team that have played rather conservatively for weeks. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 40.61%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 34.44% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.63%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.

Result
TorontoDrawNew York Red Bulls
40.61% (0.030000000000001 0.03) 24.95% (0.009999999999998 0.01) 34.44% (-0.029999999999994 -0.03)
Both teams to score 57.6% (-0.032000000000004 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.28% (-0.038000000000004 -0.04)45.72% (0.048000000000002 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.96% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)68.04% (0.046000000000006 0.05)
Toronto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.57%22.44% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.03% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)55.97% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
New York Red Bulls Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.27% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)25.74% (0.044 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.34% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)60.67% (0.060000000000002 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Toronto 40.61%
    New York Red Bulls 34.44%
    Draw 24.95%
TorontoDrawNew York Red Bulls
2-1 @ 8.75% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-0 @ 8.63% (0.016 0.02)
2-0 @ 6.45% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.36% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-0 @ 3.21% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 2.96% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 1.63%
4-0 @ 1.2% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.11% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 40.61%
1-1 @ 11.71% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.94% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-0 @ 5.77% (0.012 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.34% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.95%
1-2 @ 7.95% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-1 @ 7.84% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
0-2 @ 5.32% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 3.6% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.69% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-3 @ 2.41% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 1.22% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
2-4 @ 0.91% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 2.51%
Total : 34.44%

How you voted: Toronto vs NY Red Bulls

Toronto
54.5%
Draw
22.7%
New York Red Bulls
22.7%
22
Head to Head
Jul 28, 2024 1am
Group Stage
NY Red Bulls
0-0
Toronto
(Aggregate 0-0 | NY Red Bulls win 0-0 on penalties)
Gomis (25')
Jun 23, 2024 12.30am
NY Red Bulls
3-0
Toronto
Manoel (30'), Gjengaar (47'), Harper (75')
Edelman (68'), Eile (90+2')

Longstaff (54'), Flores (86')
Oct 8, 2023 12.30am
May 18, 2023 12.30am
Jun 19, 2022 12am
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