Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 40.61%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 34.44% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.63%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.