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Erling Haaland: Data predicts when Man City striker will break all-time scoring records after signing extraordinary contract

Shearer, Messi, Ronaldo beware! What records could Haaland break after signing 2034 contract?
© Imago
Sports Mole takes a look at what records Erling Haaland could still break at Man City in multiple competitions after signing a new long-term contract until 2034.

Manchester City supporters have not had an awful lot to smile about in the 2024-25 campaign thus far, but they will no doubt be beaming from ear to ear now that Erling Haaland has committed his long-term future to the club.

The Citizens announced on Friday morning that Haaland has signed an extraordinary nine-and-a-half-year contract, keeping him at the Etihad Stadium until the summer of 2034.

Haaland's previous deal was due to expire in June 2027 and there were suggestions that the striker could be tempted by a move to Real Madrid in the near future. However, the 24-year-old has now decided to pledge the best years of his career to "special club" Man City after penning what has been described as 'one of the most lucrative deals in sport of all time'.

Regarded by many as one of the finest strikers on the planet, Haaland has enjoyed a phenomenally prolific time at Man City since joining the club from Borussia Dortmund in the summer of 2022, scoring 111 goals in 126 appearances across all competitions and breaking a plethora of records in the process.

The Norwegian has already won a total of six trophies at Man City and was an integral part of the Citizens' side that completed a historic Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League treble in the 2022-23 campaign.

Asked on Friday whether Haaland can etch his name further into the record books, manager Pep Guardiola said: "If he continues with the numbers since he arrived, yeah [his records will never be beaten]. But it will depend on the team, him as well.

"[Haaland's contract is] exceptional news for all of us, the club. When one player decides to sign this type of contract never done before it's because he wants to show how desperately he wants to be here."

Here, Sports Mole takes a look at what records Haaland could still break at Man City after signing his new contract and when he is likely to break some of those.


Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola celebrates with Erling Haaland on October 20, 2024© Imago

Haaland to break Shearer's all-time PL scoring record in 2029-30?

The most obvious record for Haaland to break is the all-time Premier League goals tally of 260 held by Alan Shearer, who represented Southampton, Blackburn Rovers and boyhood club Newcastle United between 1988 and 2006.

Haaland currently has 79 goals to his name in 87 Premier League matches, more than any other player in the division since his debut in 2022, and he is averaging 0.9 goals per game in England's top flight - the best minutes-per-goal ratio of any player to score at least 10 goals.

Man City's No.9 reached the 50-goal mark in just 48 Premier League games - quicker than any other player in the division's history - and in November last year reached 75 PL goals in 77 games, 16 matches fewer than previous holder Shearer. Haaland is now on course to net 100 goals in record-breaking time, with Shearer - coincidently - the benchman for this feat (100 goals in 124 games).

If Haaland continues to score at his current minutes-per-goal ratio, he will reach 100 Premier League goals in just 110 games, 14 fewer than Shearer.

Opta have predicted that if Haaland's current ratio of 0.9 goals per game is maintained, he would break Shearer's 260-goal record in his 287th Premier League game for Man City, which means the Norwegian is potentially 200 appearances away from surpassing the former England striker, who needed 441 games to reach his 260-goal tally.

It is unlikely that Haaland, who has previously struggled with niggling injuries in his career, will play every single game for Man City. Having said that, the striker has taken part in 90% of the Citizens' top-flight fixtures since his arrival, starting all 21 league games so far this season.

Should Haaland feature in all of Man City's next 200 PL matches, he would surpass Shearer's all-time scoring record during the second half of the 2029-30 season.

This therefore suggests that Haaland would have plenty of time left to spare to extend the PL scoring record - potentially four more seasons!

Manchester City's Erling Haaland celebrates with the matchball after scoring a hat-trick on August 31, 2024© Imago

Could Haaland become first-ever member of 300 club?

Shearer may sit pretty at the top of the Premier League scoring charts, for now, but when you take into account football pre-1992, Jimmy Greaves is in fact the all-time top scorer in the top division of English football, after netting 357 goals during spells with Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United between 1957 and 1971.

Greaves is one of only three players to ever surpass the 300-goal tally in English top-flight history along with Steve Bloomer (314) and Dixie Dean (310). Gordon Hodgson (288) sits fourth on the all-time list, while Shearer is fifth with 283 goals (including 23 strikes for Southampton in Division One before the Premier League's inception in 1992-93).

Haaland certainly has a long way to go before he joins this exclusive group of goalscorers, but if - once again - the Man City striker were to maintain his current goal-per-game ratio, feature in 34 PL matches per season (his current average) and remain at the Etihad until his new deal runs out in 2034, Opta has calculated that the Norwegian will find the net another 294 times in the final four (maybe four-and-a-half) seasons at the club.

By the time Haaland's contract expires, he would have recorded a total of 373 Premier League goals, a whopping 113 more than Shearer and 16 more than Greaves.

Manchester City's Erling Haaland celebrates scoring on January 4, 2025© Imago

Haaland chasing down Henry, Greaves Golden Boot records

In the short term, Haaland will be attempting to break his own single-season scoring record in the Premier League. The striker surpassed Shearer and Andy Cole (34 goals) when he netted 36 goals in just 35 appearances during the 2022-23 season - his debut campaign as a Citizens player.

City's No.9, who scored 27 times in the 2023-24 season and has netted 16 goals this term, is bidding to become only the second player in Premier League history after Shearer (three times) to score 30 goals or more in multiple seasons.

Haaland is also vying to become the first player since Thierry Henry (2005 to 2007) to win three consecutive Golden Boot awards in the division - Arsenal icon Henry is also the only player to have ever won four PL Golden Boots, while Shearer, Harry Kane and Mohamed Salah are next on the list with three each.

Meanwhile, Greaves finished six different English top-flight seasons as the leading goalscorer, more than any other player in history, so Haaland will need to win the Golden Boot another five times over the next nine-and-a-half years if he wishes to surpass the 1966 World Cup winner.

Manchester City's Erling Haaland celebrates scoring on September 22, 2024© Imago

What other PL records could Haaland break at Man City?

In just two-and-a-half seasons at Man City, Haaland has already scored a total of eight Premier League hat-tricks, moving him up to fourth on the all-time list.

The Norwegian is just one treble away from matching Robbie Fowler (nine), three behind Shearer (11) and four behind the record holder and former Man City striker Sergio Aguero, who scored an impressive 12 hat-tricks during his 10-year spell at the Etihad between 2011 and 2021.

At his current rate of scoring hat-trick per season, Opta has calculated that Haaland is projected to surpass Aguero by the end of end of the 2025-26 campaign.

Aguero also holds the record for the most goals scored by a foreign player in PL history with 184, and that same tally comfortably makes him Man City's all-time top scorer in the division, currently 93 ahead of Raheem Sterling (91) in second.

Haaland, in third spot, is in with a chance of leapfrogging Sterling into second place this season, as he is only 11 goals behind the England forward, while he is on course to edge past Aguero's 184 goals in his 205th top-flight match for Man City during the 2027-28 season.

However, Haaland may need a little longer to become the highest-scoring foreign player if Liverpool's Egyptian king Salah - currently on 175 PL goals - moves past Aguero either this season or in any following campaigns should he extend his Anfield contract beyond this summer.

Haaland could further enhance his legacy at Man City if he breaks the club's all-time scoring record across all competitions held by Aguero (260); he would go past the legendary Argentine his sixth season at the club, based on his current scoring rate, as per Opta.

Manchester City's Erling Haaland pictured on August 24, 2024© Imago

Could Haaland break long-standing Ronaldo, Messi records?

Haaland has not only been scoring goals for fun on the domestic front, he has also been ripping up the record books in the Champions League since bursting onto the scene in September 2019 when he netted a memorable hat-trick on his debut in the competition with Red Bull Salzburg.

The striker currently boasts 46 Champions League goals after just 45 appearances across five seasons, including 23 goals in 26 games for Man City, and he is remarkably the quickest player to reach 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 and 45 goals in the competition's history.

At the age of 24 and 149 days (at the time of writing), Haaland needs to score four more goals before the end of May this year if he wishes to surpass Lionel Messi (24y 284d) as the youngest-ever player to score 50 Champions League goals.

Haaland also need to score just four more goals in his next 16 UCL matches if he is to become the fastest player to net 50 goals in the competition, with Ruud van Nistelrooy the current holder of this record after reaching the half-century in 62 games.

The Champions League's all-time record goalscorer is Cristiano Ronaldo (141) and Haaland is required to increase his current average of just over eight goals per season in the competition if he is to surpass the five-time Ballon d'Or winner before his Man City contract expires in 2034.

Another record Haaland will seemingly struggle to break is one held by Messi, who has scored more goals at just one club than any other player in history, netting a mind-boggling 672 times in 778 games for Barcelona between 2004 and 2021.

The sky (blue) is the limit for Haaland

Of course, whether Haaland remains fit, maintains his outstanding form and continues to evolve on the Premier League and continental stages as he gets older will have an effect on his potential to break any of the above records, as will the outcome of Man City's Premier League legal battle this spring.

Nevertheless, Haaland's seismic impact in his relatively short spell at the Etihad suggests that he can create a formidable legacy at Man City and go down as one of the game's greatest-ever strikers if he remains at his prolific best.

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Oliver Thomas
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