Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 48.99%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
48.99% ( 0.38) | 24.64% ( -0.17) | 26.36% ( -0.21) |
Both teams to score 54.22% ( 0.35) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.83% ( 0.54) | 48.17% ( -0.54) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.67% ( 0.5) | 70.33% ( -0.49) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.3% ( 0.37) | 19.7% ( -0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.29% ( 0.6) | 51.71% ( -0.6) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.52% ( 0.12) | 32.48% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.99% ( 0.13) | 69.01% ( -0.13) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
1-0 @ 10.39% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.44% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.14% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2.09% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.93% Total : 48.99% | 1-1 @ 11.69% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.64% | 0-1 @ 7.2% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 6.57% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 4.05% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.46% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.57% Total : 26.36% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 12 | 21 | 41 |
2 | Real Madrid | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 18 | 23 | 40 |
3 | Barcelona | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 51 | 22 | 29 | 38 |
4 | Athletic Bilbao | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 36 |
5 | Villarreal | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 30 | 4 | 30 |
6 | Mallorca | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 30 |
7 | Real Sociedad | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 25 |
8 | GironaGirona | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 25 |
9 | Real BetisBetis | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 25 |
10 | Osasuna | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 25 |
11 | Celta Vigo | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 24 |
12 | Rayo Vallecano | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 22 |
13 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 22 |
14 | Sevilla | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 22 |
15 | Leganes | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 18 |
16 | AlavesAlaves | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 17 |
17 | Getafe | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 16 |
18 | Espanyol | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 15 |
19 | Valencia | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 12 |
20 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 37 | -25 | 12 |
> La Liga Full Table |