Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 68.1%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Cadiz had a probability of 12.52%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.07%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Cadiz win it was 0-1 (4.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Cadiz |
68.1% ( -0.94) | 19.38% ( 0.48) | 12.52% ( 0.46) |
Both teams to score 46.73% ( -0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.22% ( -0.96) | 45.77% ( 0.96) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.91% ( -0.92) | 68.09% ( 0.92) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.59% ( -0.54) | 12.41% ( 0.54) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.7% ( -1.14) | 38.29% ( 1.14) |
Cadiz Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.35% ( 0.16) | 46.65% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.78% ( 0.13) | 82.22% ( -0.13) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Cadiz |
2-0 @ 12.6% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 12.07% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 9.61% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 8.77% ( -0.2) 3-1 @ 6.69% ( -0.12) 4-0 @ 4.58% ( -0.2) 4-1 @ 3.49% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.91% ( -0.13) 5-1 @ 1.46% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.05% Total : 68.09% | 1-1 @ 9.21% ( 0.22) 0-0 @ 5.79% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 3.66% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.72% Total : 19.38% | 0-1 @ 4.41% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 3.51% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.98% Total : 12.52% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 46 |
2 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 34 | 13 | 21 | 44 |
3 | Barcelona | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 39 |
4 | Athletic Bilbao | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 39 |
5 | Villarreal | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 38 | 31 | 7 | 33 |
6 | Mallorca | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 30 |
7 | Real Sociedad | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 28 |
8 | GironaGirona | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 28 |
9 | Rayo Vallecano | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 26 |
10 | Osasuna | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 26 |
11 | Sevilla | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
12 | Real BetisBetis | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 25 |
13 | Celta Vigo | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 24 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 22 |
15 | Leganes | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 22 |
16 | Getafe | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 20 |
17 | AlavesAlaves | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 20 |
18 | Espanyol | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 19 |
19 | Valencia | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 16 |
20 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 39 | -25 | 15 |
> La Liga Full Table |