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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 60.6%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 19.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.69%) and 1-0 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.15%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-2 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
Result | ||
NEC | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
60.6% ( -0.03) | 20.22% ( 0.02) | 19.18% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 59.82% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.64% ( -0.05) | 36.36% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.51% ( -0.06) | 58.49% ( 0.06) |
NEC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.34% ( -0.03) | 11.66% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.28% ( -0.05) | 36.72% ( 0.05) |
PEC Zwolle Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.71% ( -0.02) | 32.29% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.21% ( -0.02) | 68.79% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
NEC | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.69% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.09% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.04% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.23% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.98% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.78% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.35% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.14% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.63% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.44% ( -0) 5-2 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 3.5% Total : 60.6% | 1-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.77% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.5% ( -0) Other @ 0.25% Total : 20.22% | 1-2 @ 5.17% ( 0) 0-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.41% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.09% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.95% 0-3 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.4% Total : 19.18% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
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