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Ecuador national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Nov 11, 2021 at 9pm UK
 
Venezuela national football team

Ecuador
1 - 0
Venezuela

Hincapie (41')
Plata (22')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Ramirez (16'), Andres Martinez (25'), Martinez (45+2')

Preview: Ecuador vs. Venezuela - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Ecuador and Venezuela, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

High-flying Ecuador welcome bottom-of-the-standings Venezuela to the Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado on Thursday evening for the latest round of World Cup 2022 South American qualifiers.

The hosts have been overachieving so far this campaign, surpassing expectations to currently sit third in the table, but the last time these two sides met, the result did not follow the form book.


Match preview

Ecuador team huddle before the match on June 23, 2021© Reuters

After a stellar start to the qualifiers back in 2020, which included a 4-2 win over Uruguay and an incredible 6-1 win against Colombia, Ecuador's form has started to slip recently.

They appear to be hanging onto their qualification spot, with the bigger names behind closing in - their former victims Colombia and Uruguay are now only one point below them and Chile are four points back in sixth.

Their last five qualifiers have featured just one win, and La Tri even fell to a shock defeat to upcoming opponents Venezuela in their last encounter just over a month ago.

Enner Valencia gave his side the lead from the penalty spot but the hosts then turned the match around, with Darwin Machis scoring in first-half stoppage time and Eduardo Bello in the 64th minute to snatch just their second win of the campaign.

Gustavo Alfaro will be hoping that his men can make amends for that loss on Thursday and, surprisingly, take their first win in the last five meetings between the two teams.

Venezuela's Franklin Lucena (C) celebrates with teammate Tomas Rincon after they beat Chile in their quarter-final soccer match at the Copa America in Mendoza July 17, 2011© Reuters

Venezuela came into that game on the back of an unwanted 10-match winless run in all competitions and, despite the victory, their chances of progressing still look incredibly slim.

As we enter the final stages of the campaign, La Vinotinto remain rooted to the bottom of the table, four points adrift of Peru in ninth and nine points below the qualification spots.

They will be hoping to, at least, close the gap to the pack by repeating their performance against Ecuador from last month, although that result was something of a rarity, as it was their first win in eight encounters with the team in a fixture which has often ended as a stalemate in recent years.

They were also unable to build any momentum from the victory, falling to a 3-0 defeat away at Chile five days later.

Leonardo Gonzalez was named interim manager of the national side in August - replacing the sacked Jose Peseiro, who departed claiming he had not been paid for several months - and has a sizeable task on his hands to reclaim a bit of pride following some sparse years for one of the continent's traditional minnows.

Ecuador World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D

Ecuador form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W

Venezuela World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L



Team News

Enner Valencia pictured for Ecuador in 2019© Reuters

Main man Valencia will not be able to add to his 34 goals in 67 appearances for Ecuador as a ligament injury prevented the country's top scorer from being selected and will see him sidelined for over a month.

In addition, defenders Pervis Estupinan and Diego Palacios, as well as striker Angel Mena, will all be unavailable.

Alfaro tends to play a variant on 3-4-3 at home or against apparently lesser nations, meaning they are very likely to go with that formation on Thursday.

The visitors will also be missing an important striker as Salomon Rondon opted against joining the national side this week to concentrate on getting sharper for Everton.

Josef Martinez also misses out on the squad once again, but his near-namesake Jose Martinez has earned another call-up after a standout three-game run in the last qualifiers and some strong recent performances for Philadelphia Union.

Ecuador possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Torres, Hincapie, Arboleda; Estupinan, Gruezo, Caicedo, Preciado; Mena, Plata, Estrada

Venezuela possible starting lineup:
Farinez; Hernandez, Martinez, Ferraresi, O. Gonzalez; Rincon, Martinez; Machis, Bello, Savarino; Ramirez


SM words green background

We say: Ecuador 2-0 Venezuela

We are backing the home side to right the wrongs of their last meeting with Venezuela and return to winning ways. Both sides are missing their talisman but Ecuador should be able to find goals from somewhere in the attacking half and will make their home advantage count.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Written by
James Mackenzie

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 55.58%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 21.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.74%) and 2-0 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.58%), while for a Venezuela win it was 1-2 (5.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Ecuador vs Venezuela

Ecuador
78.1%
Draw
13.7%
Venezuela
8.2%
73
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Tables header RHS

CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Argentina Argentina1281325
2 Uruguay flag Uruguay1255220
3 Ecuador flag Ecuador1264219
4 Colombia Colombia1254319
5 Brazil Brazil1253418
6 Paraguay flag Paraguay1245317
7 Bolivia flag Bolivia1241713
8 Venezuela Venezuela1226412
9 Chile Chile122379
10 Peru flag Peru121477

CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Argentina Argentina1281325
2 Ecuador flag Ecuador1264222
3 Uruguay flag Uruguay1255220
4 Colombia Colombia1254319
5 Brazil Brazil1253418
6 Paraguay flag Paraguay1245317
7 Bolivia flag Bolivia1241713
8 Venezuela Venezuela1226412
9 Chile Chile122379
10 Peru flag Peru121477


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