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Championship | Gameweek 46
May 4, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Elland Road
Southampton logo

Leeds
1 - 2
Southampton

Piroe (21')
Gnonto (33'), Firpo (72'), Gruev (80'), Piroe (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Armstrong (18'), Smallbone (35')
Manning (33'), Bednarek (44'), Gruev (86'), Rothwell (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Leeds United and Southampton, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: QPR 4-0 Leeds
Friday, April 26 at 8pm in Championship
Last Game: Southampton 0-1 Stoke
Saturday, April 27 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Leeds United 2-2 Southampton

Regardless of whether automatic promotion is achievable or not, Leeds need to treat this fixture as a normal game in a bid to rediscover some form. Southampton have been poor themselves, yet we feel the Saints will do enough to earn a share of the spoils in an entertaining encounter. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 59.64%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 20.38% and a draw had a probability of 20%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.86%) and 1-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-2 (5.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.

Result
Leeds UnitedDrawSouthampton
59.64% (0.912 0.91) 19.98% (0.101 0.1) 20.38% (-1.012 -1.01)
Both teams to score 62.9% (-2.088 -2.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.69% (-1.981 -1.98)33.31% (1.983 1.98)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.92% (-2.303 -2.3)55.08% (2.303 2.3)
Leeds United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.01% (-0.36799999999999 -0.37)10.99% (0.371 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.74% (-0.824 -0.82)35.26% (0.826 0.83)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.67% (-2.044 -2.04)29.33% (2.046 2.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.69% (-2.581 -2.58)65.31% (2.583 2.58)
Score Analysis
    Leeds United 59.64%
    Southampton 20.38%
    Draw 19.98%
Leeds UnitedDrawSouthampton
2-1 @ 9.64% (0.176 0.18)
2-0 @ 7.86% (0.574 0.57)
1-0 @ 7.12% (0.621 0.62)
3-1 @ 7.1% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
3-0 @ 5.79% (0.339 0.34)
3-2 @ 4.35% (-0.242 -0.24)
4-1 @ 3.92% (-0.048 -0.05)
4-0 @ 3.19% (0.141 0.14)
4-2 @ 2.4% (-0.173 -0.17)
5-1 @ 1.73% (-0.048 -0.05)
5-0 @ 1.41% (0.041 0.04)
5-2 @ 1.06% (-0.094 -0.09)
4-3 @ 0.98% (-0.133 -0.13)
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 59.64%
1-1 @ 8.73% (0.291 0.29)
2-2 @ 5.91% (-0.234 -0.23)
0-0 @ 3.22% (0.326 0.33)
3-3 @ 1.78% (-0.21 -0.21)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 19.98%
1-2 @ 5.35% (-0.127 -0.13)
0-1 @ 3.95% (0.19 0.19)
0-2 @ 2.43% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.42% (-0.244 -0.24)
1-3 @ 2.19% (-0.184 -0.18)
0-3 @ 0.99% (-0.067 -0.07)
Other @ 3.05%
Total : 20.38%

How you voted: Leeds vs Southampton

Leeds United
60.0%
Draw
40.0%
Southampton
0.0%
10
Head to Head
Sep 30, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 9
Southampton
3-1
Leeds
Armstrong (2', 35'), Smallbone (31')
Armstrong (12'), Smallbone (18'), Bednarek (37'), Charles (76')
Struijk (58')
Kamara (33')
Feb 25, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 25
Leeds
1-0
Southampton
Firpo (77')
Aug 13, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 2
Southampton
2-2
Leeds
Aribo (72'), Walker-Peters (81')
Salisu (78')
Rodrigo (46', 60')
Harrison (43'), Kristensen (45'), Aaronson (90+3')
Apr 2, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 31
Leeds
1-1
Southampton
Harrison (29')
Ayling (58'), Marsch (90+3')
Oct 16, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 8
Southampton
1-0
Leeds
Broja (53')
Bednarek (75'), McCarthy (83')

Roberts (47'), Struijk (58'), Llorente (70')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds29179353193460
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd29186540211958
3Burnley29151223692757
4Sunderland291510442241855
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom291014538251344
6Middlesbrough29128947361144
7Blackburn RoversBlackburn29126113228442
8Bristol City29101183734341
9Watford29125124041-141
10Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds29118104245-341
11Norwich CityNorwich29109104842639
12Coventry CityCoventry29108113938138
13Queens Park RangersQPR2991193237-538
14Millwall29910102826237
15Preston North EndPreston2981383236-437
16Oxford UnitedOxford Utd2999113343-1036
17Swansea CitySwansea2997133240-834
18Cardiff CityCardiff29710123344-1131
19Hull City2978143038-829
20Stoke CityStoke29611122636-1029
21Portsmouth2978143652-1629
22Derby CountyDerby2976163240-827
23Luton TownLuton2975172948-1926
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth29410152762-3522


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