Cerro Porteno will look to remain unbeaten in the Copa Libertadores as they host Deportivo La Guaira on Wednesday at General Pablo Rojas Stadium in Paraguay.
El Ciclon won their opening group match in this competition 2-0 against America de Cali, while Deportivo drew 1-1 against Atletico Mineiro in their opening match in Group H.
Match preview
Despite having only 31% of the possession in their opening match, Cerro Porteno showed plenty of poise in shutting down their Colombian opponents, limiting them to only two shots on target.
They followed that up with a 1-0 win in the Paraguayan Primera Division on Sunday against Guairena for their sixth clean sheet in all competitions.
This season under manager Francisco Arce, the 33-time Paraguayan champions are usually keeping a clean sheet or being shut out, blanking their opponents in four of their league wins, but also failing to score in three of their four losses domestically.
Historically the Paraguayans are fast starters, particularly in this competition where they won their opening four group matches in 2019 and their first three in 2018.
They have been solid at home, with four wins, a draw and one loss in their six league fixtures in 2021.
In their very first appearance in this tournament Deportivo La Guaira came away with a 1-1 draw in a match where they had 28% of the possession and conceded 29 shots.
In only their 12th year of existence, Los Naranjas have risen quickly up the ranks in Venezuelan football, winning their first league title in 2020, after having already captured back-to-back Copa Venezuela trophies in 2014 and 2015.
In the early stages of this season, the side from Caracas have proven to be solid at the back with two clean sheets in the domestic league.
It should come as no surprise, given their manager Daniel Farias was a goalkeeper during his playing days, helping his side Nueva Cadiz win the Venezuelan Segunda Division in 1997-98.
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Team News
As part of his loan deal from Sao Paulo, goalkeeper Jean can play games only in this competition so expect to see him start in goal for El Ciclon.
Defender Santiago Arzamendia has goals in his last two away games, while striker Mauro Boselli is goalless in his previous two matches in all competitions.
Goalkeeper Carlos Olses is making a solid claim to start in goal for the Venezuelan champions, making eight saves in his team's opening match and picking up a clean sheet in their 0-0 draw with Puerto Cabello last weekend.
They will hope to get more contributions in attack, having scored only once this season - in their opening match of this competition courtesy of defender Luis Martinez.
Cerro Porteno possible starting lineup:
Jean; Arzamendia, Pereira, Patino, Espinola; Aquino, Villasanti, Lucena, Rojas; Boselli, Morales
Deportivo La Guaira possible starting lineup:
Olses; Flores, Martinez, La Mantia, Mejias, Cumana; Pena, Flores, Cermeno; Reyes, Ocanto
We say: Cerro Porteno 1-0 Deportivo La Guaira
Cerro Porteno know what it takes to win at this stage of the competition, and just like their opponents, they are well disciplined and defensively sound. Deportivo have struggled to generate any goals in their division, and it will not get any easier trying to find a way through a Paraguayan side that has three clean sheets on home soil this year.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Porteno win with a probability of 44.53%. A win for Deportivo La Guaira had a probability of 29.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Porteno win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Deportivo La Guaira win was 0-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
