Barnet face Boreham Wood at the Hive Stadium in the eliminator round of the National League playoffs on Tuesday evening.
The winners of the game will then travel to Meadow Lane to take on Notts County in the semi-final, where they will have the chance to earn their place in the final at Wembley Stadium on May 13th.
Match preview
After finishing 18th in the 2021-22 season, Barnet have taken great strides this season, and their place in the playoffs has been confirmed since their 1-0 victory against Solihull Moors in mid-April.
Having amassed 74 points during the regular season, the Bees finished in fifth place, earning the right to compete for a place in the EFL after a five-year absence from the fourth tier.
Dean Brennan's side have home advantage in the eliminator round, facing off against local rivals Boreham Wood, and they were unbeaten against their opponents in the regular season, drawing 1-1 away and winning 2-1 at home on Boxing Day.
That said, Barnet will need to put in a much-improved performance from their recent outings to stand any chance of progression, having struggled considerably since the beginning of April, winning just one of their last eight matches in all competitions.
Last time out, the Bees lost 2-0 at home against Dagenham & Redbridge, while they were also unable to beat 24th-placed Maidstone United and 20th-placed Maidenhead United last month, which does not bode well heading into a fixture of this magnitude.
Boreham Wood's form has also been patchy as of late, but they were able to secure a sixth-placed finish in the National League with a 1-0 victory against Yeovil Town in their most recent match.
Tyrone Marsh scored the only goal of the game to seal a win at Meadow Park, but the Wood's form on the road has not been as promising, winning just one of their last four away games, with that coming against a poor Maidstone United side.
Luke Garrard has been tantalisingly close to leading the Hertfordshire club to the EFL before, having been in charge when they lost 2-1 in the 2017-18 playoff final against Tranmere Rovers, while they also reached the semi-final in the 2019-20 season.
As such, Garrard will be hoping his side can go one better this time around, but it will be a very difficult task for whoever progresses on Monday night, as they face a trip to Notts County, who amassed a whopping 107 points in the regular season.
Team News
Brennan rung the changes at the weekend, resting some of his star players ahead of such an important game, and the likes of Ryan De Havilland, Idris Kanu and Daniele Collinge are all in line to return to the starting lineup.
Nicke Kabamba is the Bees' main attacking threat, having scored 19 goals during the regular season, the joint-fifth highest amount in the National League, and the 30-year-old is poised to play at striker, partnering Kanu.
As for Boreham Wood, Marsh is likely to keep his place in attack after scoring his ninth league goal of the season at the weekend, and he is likely to be partnered by top-scorer Lee Ndlovu.
Will Evans could return to the starting lineup, although Garrard may also be tempted to keep the faith with Jamal Fyfield at centre-back, with his side keeping a clean sheet against Yeovil at the weekend.
Barnet possible starting lineup:
Walker; Beard, Collinge, Fernandez, Okimo, Potter; Pritchard, De Havilland, Gorman; Kanu, Kabamba
Boreham Wood possible starting lineup:
Ashmore; Agbontohoma, Bush, Fyfield, Ilesanmi; Payne, Sousa, Broadbent, Brunt; Ndlovu, Marsh
We say: Barnet 1-2 Boreham Wood
Although their form has not been up to scratch in recent weeks, Boreham Wood attained the fourth-best away record in the division during the regular season, so we expect them to progress on Tuesday night, particularly considering Barnet have been very poor recently.
Grimsby Town proved that it is possible to win the playoffs after entering at the first stage with their promotion last season, but in truth whoever wins this encounter is likely to come unstuck against a fantastic Notts County side.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boreham Wood win with a probability of 40.07%. A win for Barnet had a probability of 34.07% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boreham Wood win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The likeliest Barnet win was 1-0 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Boreham Wood in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Boreham Wood.
Top tip
Dominic Lund
