Iran have won nine of their last nine home World Cup qualifiers, and we think that they will continue that impressive record with a comfortable victory over a nation sitting 129 places below them in the FIFA World Rankings. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 71.49%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Hong Kong had a probability of 10.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.49%) and 3-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Hong Kong win it was 0-1 (3.78%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.

Result
Iran	Draw	Hong Kong
71.49% ( -0.14)	17.74% ( 0.09)	10.77% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 46.42% (

-0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.92% (

-0.24)

43.07% (

0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.52% (

-0.24)

65.47% (

0.24)

Iran Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.27% (

-0.1)

10.72% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.32% (

-0.23)

34.67% (

0.22)

Hong Kong Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52% (

-0.06)

47.99% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.77% (

-0.05)

83.23% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Iran 71.48%

Hong Kong 10.77%

Draw 17.74%

Iran	Draw	Hong Kong
2-0 @ 12.82% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 9.55% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.01% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.91% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 2.38% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.75% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.82% Total : 71.48%	1-1 @ 8.44% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 3.46% ( -0) Other @ 0.7% Total : 17.74%	0-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 3.1% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.39% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.5% Total : 10.77%