Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vietnam win with a probability of 88.59%. A draw had a probability of 8.6% and a win for Hong Kong had a probability of 2.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vietnam win was 3-0 with a probability of 14.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.26%) and 4-0 (11.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.99%), while for a Hong Kong win it was 0-1 (1.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vietnam would win this match.