After just about getting over the line in Santiago, Dorival Junior would be grateful for a more routine success here, as claiming six points in October would do wonders for Brazil's position in the standings.
Despite a first win of the campaign against Uruguay last week, travelling away to Brazil is not the fixture Peru would have chosen next, even if the Selecao are not in the greatest shape, as they have lost all five previous meetings against their upcoming hosts.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 73.62%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Peru had a probability of 8.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.84%) and 3-0 (10.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.17%), while for a Peru win it was 0-1 (3.89%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brazil would win this match.
-0.45) 
0.19) 
