World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Oct 18, 2023 at 1am UK

Estadio Centenario

Uruguay
2 - 0
Brazil

Nunez (42'), de la Cruz (77')
Araujo (10'), Nunez (21'), Nandez (57')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Rodrygo (45+5'), Casemiro (71'), Ederson (77'), Jesus (83'), Cunha (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's South American World Cup qualification clash between Uruguay and Brazil, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole looks at how Brazil could line up in Tuesday's 2026 World Cup qualifier with Uruguay.

Form, Standings, Stats

Uruguay

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Colombia 2-2 Uruguay
Thursday, October 12 at 9.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	5	9
2	Brazil	3	5	7
3	Ecuador	3	1	6
4	Colombia	3	1	5
5	Uruguay	3	1	4
6	Chile	3	0	4
7	Venezuela	3	0	4
8	Paraguay	3	-2	1
9	Peru	3	-3	1
10	Bolivia	3	-8	0

Brazil

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Brazil 1-1 Venezuela
Friday, October 13 at 1.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	5	9
2	Brazil	3	5	7
3	Ecuador	3	1	6
4	Colombia	3	1	5
5	Uruguay	3	1	4
6	Chile	3	0	4
7	Venezuela	3	0	4
8	Paraguay	3	-2	1
9	Peru	3	-3	1
10	Bolivia	3	-8	0

This has all of the makings of a fascinating match, especially as both sides will be looking to return to winning ways. Uruguay are certainly capable of claiming a positive result on Tuesday, but we just have a feeling that Brazil will be able to navigate their way to an important three points here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 40.54%. A win for Brazil had a probability of 31.09% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Brazil win was 0-1 (10.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.

Result
Uruguay	Draw	Brazil
40.54% ( -0.68)	28.36% ( 0.23)	31.09% ( 0.45)

Both teams to score 45.93% (

-0.49)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.82% (

-0.69)

60.18% (

0.69)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.62% (

-0.53)

80.38% (

0.53)

Uruguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.9% (

-0.72)

29.1% (

0.72)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.98% (

-0.89)

65.02% (

0.89)

Brazil Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.79% (

-0.03)

35.21% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.03% (

-0.04)

71.97% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Uruguay 40.53%

Brazil 31.09%

Draw 28.35%

Uruguay	Draw	Brazil
1-0 @ 12.64% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 7.81% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 3.35% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 3.21% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.59% Total : 40.53%	1-1 @ 13.2% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 10.24% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.35%	0-1 @ 10.69% ( 0.26) 1-2 @ 6.89% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 5.58% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.94% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.11% Total : 31.09%