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World Cup
Peru national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 12, 2024 at 2.30am UK
Estadio Nacional de Lima
Uruguay national football team

Peru
1 - 0
Uruguay

Araujo (88')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Nandez (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Peru and Uruguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Peru

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Ecuador 1-0 Peru
Tuesday, September 10 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings P GD PTS
1Argentina9819
2Brazil10316
3Colombia9316
4Uruguay8815
5Ecuador9215
6Bolivia9-412
7Venezuela9-111
8Paraguay9-110
9Chile10-105
10Peru8-83

Uruguay

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Venezuela 0-0 Uruguay
Tuesday, September 10 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings P GD PTS
1Argentina9819
2Brazil10316
3Colombia9316
4Uruguay8815
5Ecuador9215
6Bolivia9-412
7Venezuela9-111
8Paraguay9-110
9Chile10-105
10Peru8-83

We said: Peru 0-1 Uruguay

 There have been just six goals in the last five meetings between these two nations, and Peru's profligacy matched with Uruguay's impressive defensive record makes a low-scoring away win look most likely. Sitting bottom of the standings, Peru did show some promising signs against Colombia last month, but even though they have the benefit of home advantage, their winless run against Uruguay is set to extend to five matches here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 42.32%. A draw had a probability of 31.3% and a win for Peru had a probability of 26.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.05%) and 1-2 (7.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.95%), while for a Peru win it was 1-0 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.

Result
PeruDrawUruguay
26.37% (-0.062999999999999 -0.06) 31.31% (0.11 0.11) 42.32% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Both teams to score 36.74% (-0.265 -0.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
29.63% (-0.3 -0.3)70.37% (0.298 0.3)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
12.53% (-0.191 -0.19)87.47% (0.19 0.19)
Peru Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.08% (-0.23999999999999 -0.24)44.92% (0.23999999999999 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.13% (-0.194 -0.19)80.87% (0.193 0.19)
Uruguay Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.71% (-0.191 -0.19)33.29% (0.19 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.09% (-0.211 -0.21)69.91% (0.209 0.21)
Score Analysis
    Peru 26.36%
    Uruguay 42.31%
    Draw 31.31%
PeruDrawUruguay
1-0 @ 11.96% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 5.27% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
2-0 @ 4.79% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-1 @ 1.41% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-0 @ 1.28% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 1.66%
Total : 26.36%
0-0 @ 14.95% (0.17 0.17)
1-1 @ 13.16% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 2.9% (-0.037 -0.04)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 31.31%
0-1 @ 16.44% (0.09 0.09)
0-2 @ 9.05% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.24% (-0.043 -0.04)
0-3 @ 3.32% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-3 @ 2.65% (-0.03 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.06% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-4 @ 0.91% (-0.009 -0.01)
Other @ 1.64%
Total : 42.31%

How you voted: Peru vs Uruguay

Peru
37.5%
Draw
0.0%
Uruguay
62.5%
8
Head to Head
Mar 24, 2022 11.30pm
Group Stage
Uruguay
1-0
Peru
De Arrascaeta (42')
Pellistri (72'), Suarez (76')
> Preview
Sep 3, 2021 2am
Group Stage
Peru
1-1
Uruguay
Tapia (25')
De Arrascaeta (29')
> Preview
Oct 16, 2019 2.30am
International Friendlies
Peru
1-1
Uruguay
Gonzales (34')
Zambrano (23'), Trauco (36'), Advincula (71')
Nunez (80')
Caceres (26')
Caceres (26')
Oct 12, 2019 12am
International Friendlies
Uruguay
1-0
Peru
Rodriguez (17')
Caceres (84'), Bentancur (88')

Zambrano (10'), Costa (49'), Advincula (88')
Jun 29, 2019 8pm
Quarter-Finals
Uruguay
0-0
Peru
(Aggregate 0-0 | Peru win 5-4 on penalties)
> Match Report
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