Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 80.43%. A draw had a probability of 12.6% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 6.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.72%) and 2-1 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.9%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-2 (2.16%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.