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[monks data]
Vitesse
Conference League | Last 16 | 1st Leg
Mar 10, 2022 at 5.45pm UK
GelreDome
Roma logo

Vitesse
0 - 1
Roma


Oroz (33')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Oliveira (45+1')
Vina (7'), Oliveira (70'), Mancini (86')
Oliveira (78')

Preview: Vitesse vs. Roma - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Vitesse and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

After back-to-back wins in Serie A, the pursuit of silverware goes on for Roma, as they visit Vitesse in the first leg of their Europa Conference League last 16 tie on Thursday.

Having edged past Atalanta at the weekend, Jose Mourinho's men are back in the race for a top four place but must now focus on eliminating a side that squeezed through last month's playoffs to reach this stage.


Match preview

Roma's Henrikh Mkhitaryan celebrates scoring their second goal with Jordan Veretout, Matias Vina and teammates on January 9, 2022© Reuters

Though the headlines were dominated by their remarkable 6-1 defeat away to Bodo/Glimt in the Conference League's inaugural group stage, Roma ultimately usurped the Norwegian champions at the top of Group C to qualify directly for the last 16 during the autumn.

Scoring 18 goals - the most of any team in the group stage - the Giallorossi's progress has otherwise been serene, and they took maximum points off both CSKA Sofia and Zorya Luhansk to finish a point ahead of their Nordic rivals.

Their form since returning full-time to domestic football has fluctuated, to say the least, but during the past fortnight, Roma have bounced back from a limp Coppa Italia exit by salvaging successive draws with late comebacks, then going on to beat Spezia and Atalanta.

In a tense affair at Stadio Olimpico, it was once again top scorer Tammy Abraham who netted the winning goal against the latter; his first-half strike proving enough to secure three points which see Mourinho's men sitting sixth in the standings - just above fierce rivals Lazio, and within six points of the top four.

While, in Serie A, they have produced their best results on home soil - often struggling on the road - the Giallorossi have nevertheless won eight of their last 11 European away matches before heading for the Netherlands this week.

Scoring at least twice in all of those victories, Roma have also found the net in each and every one of their last 18 away fixtures in continental competition - and they now face opponents who not long ago conceded 16 times in just four games.

Vitesse coach Thomas Letsch during the match on November 25, 2021© Reuters

One of four Dutch clubs competing in the Conference League's last 16, Vitesse continue their first ever springtime European campaign with a tie which coach Thomas Letsch has labelled "wonderful", while indicating his delight at going toe to toe with Mourinho - "one of the best coaches."

The Arnhem outfit were runners-up to Rennes in Group G during the autumn, when they accumulated an impressive 10 points - the highlight surely being a 1-0 home win against Tottenham Hotspur.

With a 3-1 win at home to bottom side Mura, Vitesse secured a place in February's playoffs, where they met Austrian footballing royalty in the shape of Rapid Vienna.

Letsch saw his team trail heading into the second leg, but they came from behind to progress 3-2 on aggregate thanks to early goals from Matus Bero and Adrian Grbic - the latter helping to eliminate his former club.

Now sixth in the league standings, Vitesse ended their 2020-21 Eredivisie campaign in fourth place, which earned them a return to Europe after a two years away.

It has proved a positive comeback, too, as they have now won six of their last nine European home matches and their Conference League record in Arnhem reads: four wins, one loss and a draw from six matches.

Having also won six of their last nine home matches in all competitions - including successive victories at the GelreDome - they took on struggling Sparta Rotterdam last Friday.

Trailing 1-0 during stoppage time, the game was abandoned following crowd trouble, as a fan confronted players on the pitch and objects were thrown from the stands - hardly the ideal preparation for such a high-profile clash on Thursday.

Vitesse Europa Conference League form:
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W

Vitesse form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W

Roma Europa Conference League form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W

Roma form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W



Team News

Roma's Tammy Abraham celebrates scoring their third goal on November 25, 2021© Reuters

Roma striker Tammy Abraham is the Conference League's top scorer to date - entering the knockout stages with six goals to his name - and should be fit to feature again versus Vitesse, despite sustaining a heavy blow to the ankle at the weekend.

Young full-back Nicola Zalewski also picked up an injury against Atalanta, being forced off early in the second half due to an ankle sprain, so either Matias Vina or Ainsley Maitland-Niles could be called upon to take his place.

The latter is one of three players to be added to Jose Mourinho's squad since they last played in this competition, and both up-and-coming forward Felix Afena-Gyan and Porto loanee Sergio Oliveira are in contention to start.

Despite dominating their abandoned game against Sparta last time out, Vitesse were on the verge of defeat with just moments left to play, so Thomas Letsch could make some changes on Thursday.

Belgium Under-21 striker Lois Openda is available again after serving a suspension in the second leg against Rapid Vienna, and the Club Brugge loanee is likely to feature in the hosts' front pair, alongside either Nikolai Baden Fredriksen or Adrian Grbic.

Maximilian Wittek has scored four times in Europe so far this season, so is expected to start on the left flank, though it remains to be seen whether Letsch opts for a back five against stronger opponents.

Vitesse possible starting lineup:
Houwen; Doekhi, Oroz, Rasmussen; Dasa, Tronstad, Domgjoni, Bero, Wittek; Openda, Grbic

Roma possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Mancini, Smalling, Ibanez; Karsdorp, Veretout, Oliveira, Vina; Mkhitaryan; Afena-Gyan, Abraham


SM words green background

We say: Vitesse 1-2 Roma

It has been far from pretty, but Roma have managed to grind out a series of positive results lately - setting them up nicely for a successful return to Europe.

Vitesse are undoubtedly no pushovers on current form, but the significant gulf in individual quality will start to show itself as the evening wears on - resulting in several chances for the visitors.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 43.51%. A win for Roma had a probability of 35.39% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.39%) and 3-2 (4.88%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-2 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Vitesse vs Roma

Vitesse
17.2%
Draw
10.9%
Roma
71.9%
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