Hellas Verona play host to Spezia on Sunday afternoon looking to extend their unbeaten record in Serie A to four matches.
Despite their recent improvement, Verona sit just three places above their 17th-placed opponents in the standings.
Match preview
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While Verona's poor form has been carried over from last season, they are at least now in a position where they are collecting points on a regular basis.
The dramatic win over Roma laid the foundations for Igor Tudor and his side to kick on, but equally-thrilling draws with Salernitana and Genoa have left the club with mixed emotions.
Although those two points have moved Verona outside of the relegation zone, they held two-goal advantages in each fixture before being pegged back by their respective hosts.
Veteran forward Nikola Kalinic netted three times in just 81 matches across that double-header, adding to a group of players which does not look short of goals.
Nevertheless, 15 games have now passed by without a clean sheet, a streak which must end sooner rather than later if they are to climb up the table.
Despite collecting a point less than their hosts, there is an argument that Spezia will be more satisfied with their start to the campaign.
Games with Lazio, Juventus and AC Milan came and went without any points being recorded, but one of the minnows of the division pushed the latter two to the brink.
However, Thiago Motta will recognise that his players must start to turn performances into results on a consistent basis, particularly in fixtures such as the one at the weekend.
The Little Eagles have not kept a clean sheet in Serie A since February 13, a period stretching 22 games.
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Team News
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Tudor will give consideration to recalling Kalinic after the Croatian scored as a substitute against Genoa.
Kevin Lasagna could drop out of the team to accommodate the 33-year-old, but the rest of the side could remain the same with Verona's capitulation occurring after a wave of substitutions.
Gianluca Frabotta, Miguel Veloso and Kevin Ruegg are all unlikely to return from injury.
Daniele Verde will expect to return to the Spezia XI after the playmaker netted against AC Milan last Saturday.
Jacopo Sala could drop out of the midfield, while Rey Manaj and David Strelec are alternatives to M'Bala Nzola in attack.
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Dawidowicz, Gunter, Casale; Faraoni, Tameze, Ilic, Lazovic; Barak, Kalinic, Simeone
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Zoet; Amian, Hristov, Nikolaou, Bastoni; Bourabia; Antiste, Maggiore, Verde, Gyasi; Manaj
We say: Hellas Verona 1-1 Spezia
Despite suffering consecutive defeats, Spezia deserve plenty of respect ahead of this contest after performing at a high level against two of the division's giants. With that in mind, we are backing the visitors to claim a share of the spoils, adding a further point to their solid away record.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hellas Verona win with a probability of 44.75%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 29.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hellas Verona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hellas Verona would win this match.
