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La Liga | Gameweek 21
Jan 30, 2021 at 5.30pm UK
Mestalla
Elche

Valencia
1 - 0
Elche

Wass (22')
Wass (70')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Gonzalo (3'), Barragan (33'), Morente (42'), Marcone (48'), Gonzalez (65'), Cifu (74'), Rodriguez (90+1')

Preview: Valencia vs. Elche - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Valencia and Elche, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

This Saturday, two of La Liga's most out-of-form sides go toe-to-toe in a contest that could go a long way in deciding who will be playing Segunda Division football next season.

Valencia, who have found themselves in choppy waters this season, come into this game knowing that a win could put some distance between them and the dreaded drop zone, while Elche have failed to win a top-flight match since mid-October.


Match preview

Javi Gracia, now in charge of Valencia, pictured in August 2019© Reuters

Valencia boss Javi Gracia is a man under pressure. On top of overseeing one of the team's worst La Liga campaigns in modern times, Gracia's men also crashed out of the Copa del Rey in midweek when Sevilla thrashed them 3-0 in Andalusia.

Los Che, who have endured something of a doomed campaign this season, are 14th place in the table, just two points above the relegation zone.

Against Atletico Madrid last time out, Valencia started the game well, with Uros Racic finding the back of the net with a spectacular long-range strike. However, Gracia's men were eventually undone by Atleti, losing the game 2-1.

The result was the latest of a seemingly endless string of poor results for Los Che, who have won just one La Liga game since they bested Real Madrid at Mestalla in November.

Despite that victory, Gracia's men have failed to make Mestalla a fortress this season, with Los Che picking up just 11 points on home turf so far.

If Valencia are to keep catastrophe at bay, the team will have to improve their home form, starting with three points against Elche.

Elche's Fidel celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates against Real Madrid on December 30, 2020© Reuters

You would be hard-pressed to find a side worse than Valencia this season, but Jorge Almiron's Elche are potentially the prime candidates in that category.

Elche are winless in 13 La Liga outings, a run in which they have picked up just seven points. Still, Almiron's men will take inspiration from the fact that their last three points came against Los Che in mid-October.

Coming away from Mestalla with a win is a tough ask for Elche, but Almiron's side can at least boast the 11th best away form in the league.

Out of the eight games on their travels, Los Franjiverdes have picked up two wins and three draws. Currently 19th in the table, this is a must-win game for Elche, who have been flirting with relegation all season.

Valencia La Liga form: LDDWDL
Valencia form (all competitions): WWWDLL

Elche La Liga form: DDLLDL
Elche form (all competitions): LWLLDL


Team News

Elche manager Jorge Almiron pictured while in charge of San Lorenzo in May 2019© Reuters

After navigating the team through an injury crisis earlier on in the campaign, Gracia has relatively few injury worries to contend with this weekend.

Kevin Gameiro, who only just returned to action after a short injury lay-off, is unavailable once again due to COVID-19.

Thierry Correia and Mouctar Diakhaby are both also out with hamstring injuries, meaning Gracia will be forced to tweak his backline.

Elche will be without Fidel, who has a hamstring injury, while new boy Johan Mojica could start again in defence.

Valencia possible starting lineup:
Domenech; Wass, Gabriel, Guillamon, Gaya; Musah, Soler, Racic, Cheryshev; Gomez, Vallejo

Elche possible starting lineup:
Badia; Barragan, Gonzalo, Gonzalez, Mojica; Josan Fernandez, Guti, Marcone, Rodriguez, Rigoni; Boye


SM words green background

We say: Valencia 2-1 Elche

Valencia have been a shadow of their former selves in recent weeks and many La Liga neutrals have been waiting for them to come alive this season. We do not think Los Che will come alive, but we do think they have what it takes to find their way past Elche this weekend.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 39.9%. A win for Elche had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Elche win was 0-1 (11.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Valencia in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Valencia vs Elche

Valencia
78.3%
Draw
16.7%
Elche
5.0%
60
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona12110140112933
2Real Madrid1173121111024
3Atletico MadridAtletico126511871123
4Villarreal116322019121
5Osasuna126331716121
6Athletic Bilbao125431812619
7Real BetisBetis125431210219
8Mallorca12534109118
9Rayo Vallecano114431210216
10Celta Vigo125161820-216
11Real Sociedad124351010015
12GironaGirona124351517-215
13Sevilla124351217-515
14AlavesAlaves124171419-513
15Leganes122551216-411
16Getafe12174810-210
17Espanyol123181122-1110
18Las PalmasLas Palmas122371321-89
19Real ValladolidValladolid12228924-158
20Valencia11146817-97


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