Facing a potential elimination from the Leagues Cup, the Chicago Fire will battle Toluca on Thursday from SeatGeek Stadium in Bridgeview, Illinois.
It will be the first match of the tournament for Toluca, who played to a 1-1 draw with Cruz Azul in their previous Liga MX affair, while the Fire could not maintain their early advantage versus Sporting Kansas City, losing that Leagues Cup contest 2-1.
Match preview
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Toluca have begun their Liga MX campaign positively, as they are one of five teams in the 2024 Apertura without a defeat after four matchdays.
Their form in front of goal is a big reason why they sit fifth in the table, netting the joint-second-most times thus far (seven).
Renato Paiva's men are currently on a five-match unbeaten run across all competitions, failing to concede in three of those outings.
In their two Apertura away matches this season, they have collected a single point, while Toluca have not won a game as the visitors since matchday 16 of the Clausura campaign in April (5-1 over San Luis).
Diablos Rojos boast a 100% record in the group phase of this tournament, defeating the eventual runners-up, Nashville SC (4-3) and the Colorado Rapids (4-1) last year, while scoring multiple goals in every one of their Leagues Cup contests.
They have never lost to an MLS opponent in normal time at this tournament, exiting the Leagues Cup round of 16 last year versus Minnesota United on penalties (4-2).
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It has often been by the thinnest of margins, but the Chicago Fire cannot seem to find a way to win close games, losing by a single goal in eight encounters across all competitions this year.
On four occasions in 2024, Frank Klopas has seen his side squander a 1-0 advantage and fail to hold it, including in their opening game of this tournament.
Their defeat versus SKC was the first time they had lost a Leagues Cup group fixture in normal time, while they are winless in four of their previous five competitive games.
In three of their last four matches played at this tournament, the Fire have failed to score in the opening half, losing the only time they did in Kansas City on Sunday.
Another defeat on Thursday would officially eliminate them from this competition in the group stage for the first time.
Chicago have never beaten a Mexican side in this competition, though they earned a point in the group phase against Puebla last year, claiming a 1-1 draw before losing in a marathon penalty shootout 10-9.
Team News
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Juan Escobar was once again unavailable for Toluca in their draw with Cruz Azul, as he is dealing with an unknown injury.
From matchday three to four in the Apertura, we saw three newcomers in their starting 11 as Claudio Baeza, Ernesto Vega and Maximiliano Araujo replaced Victor Arteaga, Jesus Angulo and Jean Meneses.
Goalkeeper Tiago Volpi was among their leading goalscorers at this tournament last year, as he and Marcel Ruiz both netted twice.
Once again, the Fire did not have Carlos Teran or Federico Navarro available this past weekend because of leg injuries, while Chase Gasper is recovering from a hamstring strain.
Andrew Gutman came on for Arnaud Souquet with 11 minutes remaining on Sunday, his first appearance since sustaining a hamstring injury, while Xherdan Shaqiri was again missing in action as he has been since representing Switzerland at the 2024 Euros.
Georgios Koutsias put Chicago in front after 22 minutes this past weekend, the first goal for the 20-year-old Greek striker in 2024.
Toluca possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Garcia, Luan, Pereira, Gallardo; Baeza, Amaya; Dominguez, Vega, Araujo; Paulinho
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Richey; Shannon, Salquist, Souquet; Herbers, Gutierrez, Gimenez, Acosta, Haile-Selassie; Barlow, Koutsias
We say: Toluca 2-0 Chicago Fire
Losing by such narrow margins time and again can weigh heavily on a team, and it seems as though the Fire cannot get out of this current slump despite their best efforts.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 65.61%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 15.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.46%) and 1-0 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.53%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 1-2 (4.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
Joel Lefevre
