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Birmingham logo
Championship | Gameweek 39
Apr 2, 2021 at 8pm UK
St. Andrew's Stadium
Swansea logo

Birmingham
1 - 0
Swansea

Hogan (90+1' pen.)
Seddon (45+1')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Preview: Birmingham City vs. Swansea City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Birmingham City and Swansea City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Swansea City head into their Championship fixture with Birmingham City looking for the victory which will keep the club in the race for automatic promotion.

Despite having played four matches more than nearest rivals Rotherham United, Blues sit just three points above the relegation zone.


Match preview

Birmingham City manager Lee Bowyer pictured on March 17, 2021© Reuters

On the back of a one-sided defeat at Watford, Birmingham supporters will have mixed views regarding Lee Bowyer's start to life at St Andrew's.

Nevertheless, three points from two games against playoff contenders represents a strong start for the former midfielder, who is aware that the previous success against Reading will soon be forgotten unless more positive results are posted in the coming weeks.

Rather than worrying about Rotherham's games in hand, Bowyer will be focused on overhauling the teams above them now that they sit just four points adrift of 17th-placed Nottingham Forest.

For all the criticism of their home form this season, Blues have two wins to their name in three outings, the other being a comeback success against Queens Park Rangers.

At a time when they still possess the worst home record in the division, Blues square off against opposition who have collected 31 points from 18 fixtures on their travels.

Swansea City's Morgan Whittaker in action with Cardiff City's Marlon Pack in the Championship on March 20, 2021© Reuters

Steve Cooper has been left frustrated by successive defeats against Bournemouth and Cardiff City, results which have left the Swans as outsiders for the top two.

With Norwich City all but out of their reach, the Welsh outfit are now relying on Watford's prolonged winning streak coming to an end as soon as possible.

Even with a game in hand, Swansea are showing signs that they will not be able to keep pace with the Hornets, putting the onus on securing a top-four spot over the coming weeks.

As well as failing to score in their last two encounters, three of Swansea's last six strikes have come from the penalty spot, two of which have been decisive goals in added-on time.

Few can argue that Cooper's side have enjoyed their fair share of good fortune since the beginning of March, but a break from action and a change of scenery for their international representatives may work wonders for this squad.

Birmingham City Championship form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L

Swansea City Championship form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L


Team News

Birmingham City's Scott Hogan celebrates scoring on November 7, 2020© Reuters

Despite being outclassed by Watford two weeks ago, Bowyer will give consideration to naming an unchanged starting lineup after their previous win over Reading.

In a bid to match Swansea's numbers in midfield, Mikel San Jose could be drafted into midfield as a replacement for Scott Hogan or Lukas Jutkiewicz.

Ivan Sanchez may also get an opportunity ahead of Alen Halilovic on the right flank.

Ben Cabango is in line to be included in the Swansea side as a replacement for Marc Guehi, who has been representing England Under-21s at the European Championship.

Morgan Whittaker should keep his place ahead of Jamal Lowe, but Conor Hourihane is a major doubt due to a hamstring injury.

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Colin, Roberts, Dean, Pedersen; Sanchez, Gardner, San Jose, Harper, Bela; Jutkiewicz

Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Woodman; Naughton, Bennett, Cabango; Roberts, Fulton, Grimes, Bidwell; Dhanda; Ayew, Whittaker


SM words green background

We say: Birmingham City 1-1 Swansea City

On the back of their last two performances, Cooper will expect a strong response from his side. However, the appointment of Bowyer can only have a positive effect on Blues, leading us to predict a low-scoring draw.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a draw or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Draw/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 44.99%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 27.54% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.76%) and 1-2 (8.7%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (9.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Birmingham vs Swansea

Birmingham City
5.0%
Draw
15.0%
Swansea City
80.0%
20
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1Sunderland1695226121432
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3Burnley168621961330
4Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
5Middlesbrough1683529191027
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom166821811726
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8Millwall166641914524
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City165742020022
11Derby CountyDerby165562020020
12Stoke CityStoke165561920-120
13Norwich CityNorwich164752524119
14Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds165471826-819
16Luton TownLuton165381826-818
17Coventry CityCoventry164572223-117
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd164571924-517
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