On a run of one win since early January, Unraniyespor head into Tuesday knowing that another defeat could see them slip further into trouble at the bottom end of the table. However, they face a resolute Karagumruk side who will be looking to bounce back from their defeat to Fenerbahce. While we expect the visitors to put up a fight, we are backing Pirlo's side to come away with a slender victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fatih Karagumruk win with a probability of 51.53%. A win for Umraniyespor had a probability of 27.01% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fatih Karagumruk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.48%) and 1-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Umraniyespor win was 1-2 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fatih Karagumruk would win this match.

Result
Fatih Karagumruk	Draw	Umraniyespor
51.53% ( -1.14)	21.45% ( -0.07)	27.01% ( 1.2)

Both teams to score 66.06% (

1.46)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.16% (

1.41)

32.83% (

-1.42)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.47% (

1.62)

54.52% (

-1.62)

Fatih Karagumruk Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.88% (

0.14)

13.12% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.23% (

0.28)

39.76% (

-0.29)

Umraniyespor Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.04% (

1.56)

23.96% (

-1.57)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.81% (

2.19)

58.19% (

-2.19)

Score Analysis

Fatih Karagumruk 51.53%

Umraniyespor 27.01%

Draw 21.45%

Fatih Karagumruk	Draw	Umraniyespor
2-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 6.48% ( -0.43) 1-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.46) 3-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 4.39% ( -0.26) 4-1 @ 3.19% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 2.23% ( -0.12) 5-1 @ 1.29% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.09) 5-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.36% Total : 51.53%	1-1 @ 9.12% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 6.62% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 3.14% ( -0.24) 3-3 @ 2.13% ( 0.16) Other @ 0.44% Total : 21.45%	1-2 @ 6.52% ( 0.14) 0-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.13) 0-2 @ 3.21% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 3.15% ( 0.22) 1-3 @ 3.1% ( 0.2) 0-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.09) 2-4 @ 1.13% ( 0.13) 1-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.12) Other @ 2.78% Total : 27.01%