Monaco have an opportunity to catch Strasbourg for fifth in Ligue 1 when they travel to Stade de la Meinau in eastern France on Sunday.
Le Racing are three points clear of Les Monegasques for the final European place heading into this contest despite drawing their last three games, while Monaco have only collected one victory in their previous six matches played in all competitions.
Match preview
© Reuters
After capturing seven of nine games in the top flight since December, Julien Stephan has seen his side cool off in recent weeks, without a win in their previous three domestic encounters.
Not only have victories been hard to come by of late, but their potent attack, which did so much damage throughout much of this campaign, have been quiet in recent matches.
Strasbourg have only scored once in their previous two Ligue 1 fixtures, despite firing a total of 12 combined efforts on target over that stretch.
In the past two weeks, Les Coureurs have faced a pair of sides who are capable of playing an effective low-block system (Nice and Reims) that can stifle even the best finishers in the final third.
Historically this club have not fared well against Monaco domestically, losing 45 times to them in this competition, although lately, the tide seems to be turning in their favour, having won two of the last three meetings against them.
They come into this contest unbeaten in three consecutive home fixtures while looking sharp defensively over that span, conceding only once.
The goals may not be flying in for them like we saw earlier in the campaign, however, their back three have done a splendid job at staying close to one another while also being aided by their midfielders coming back collectively to help out, allowing only one effort on target over the past two games.
© Reuters
Victories for Monaco have been few and far between of late, though this team did manage to blank Marseille a week ago, despite having only 33% possession.
Consistency has been an issue for these players with Philippe Clement at the helm, having failed to win consecutive matches in the league since the Belgian took over.
Les Rouges-et-Blancs have been their own worst enemy over the past few weeks, scoring an own-goal after initially being ahead in defeats to both Reims and Nantes, while some careless defending early on put them behind in midweek versus Braga in the Europa League, as they went on to lose 2-0.
Clement may not have them in a European place like they are striving for, but we have rarely seen them come away empty-handed in domestic encounters, suffering only three losses in their last 15 league fixtures.
This team are showing much more attacking intent than they did under Niko Kovac, with intense pressing and vertical play, which has allowed their forwards to have plenty of quality scoring opportunities.
Even though it has been several games since Clement became the manager it still seems as though Monaco are trying to find their balance around the field, as this more wide-open brand of football has seen them get caught out of position at times.
- L
- W
- W
- D
- D
- D
- L
- W
- D
- D
- L
- W
- D
- D
- L
- L
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Ludovic Ajorque still leads Strasbourg in goals and assists with 10 and seven, respectively but has only tallied once since the New Year, while Kevin Gameiro is goalless in three straight fixtures and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde rescued a point for them in a 1-1 draw last week at Reims.
Adrien Thomasson is out with a thigh issue, Eiji Kawashima and Ismael Doukoure have knee injuries and Maxime Le Marchand has a problem with his back.
Stephan made two changes to his starting 11 last week, bringing in Ibrahima Sissoko in place of the injured Thomasson, while Habib Diallo was inserted alongside Ajorque in the attack rather than Gameiro.
Gelson Martins scored his fourth goal of the domestic campaign last week, helping Monaco to victory at the Stade Velodrome, putting him one back of Kevin Volland for third on the team.
The leading scorer in Ligue 1 at the moment, Wissam Ben Yedder, had a goal called back for offside in their Europa League defeat on Thursday, as he has only tallied once for this side in his last four domestic affairs.
Aurelien Tchouameni may be one of the most hotly-pursued Monegasque players right now by the big European clubs, but it was his giveaway in midweek which put his side behind in Portugal, while Chrislain Matsima struggled to contain the Braga attack as he was replaced by Benoit Badiashile early in the second half.
Cesc Fabregas remains sidelined due to an ankle problem, and Krepin Diatta is done for the season after suffering an ACL injury.
Strasbourg possible starting lineup:
Sels; Djiku, Nyamsi, Perrin; Caci, Bellegarde, Prcic, Lienard, Guilbert; Ajorque, Gameiro
Monaco possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Henrique, Sidibe, Disasi, Aguilar; Tchouameni, Golovin; Martins, Diop, Lucas; Ben Yedder
We say: Strasbourg 2-1 Monaco
Consistency is essential in a lengthy domestic campaign, and Monaco have not shown enough of it in Ligue 1 this season, plus their style under Clement seems to be well-suited for a team like Strasbourg.
With that being said, we expect the potent strikers of Les Coureurs to have their share of opportunities against a side who have allowed a lot of space on the counter and look a little out of sorts defensively.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Strasbourg win with a probability of 41.61%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 32.16% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Strasbourg win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Monaco win was 0-1 (8.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Strasbourg in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Strasbourg.
