Two sides in contrasting form face off at St Mary's Stadium on Friday evening as Southampton host Leicester City in the opening Premier League game of the weekend.
The Saints have lost three games in a row in all competitions and are 15th in the table, while the Foxes are flying high in third place.
Match preview
© Reuters
Leicester's run of victories started with a 1-0 win over Southampton at Wembley in the FA Cup semi-finals less than two weeks ago, with Kelechi Iheanacho settling the contest.
Iheanacho was again the hero for City on Monday night with a bullet strike late on to earn a 2-1 comeback win against Crystal Palace - the Nigerian's 14th goal in as many matches.
That win for Leicester, following a 3-0 victory over West Bromwich Albion a few days on from their cup semi-final triumph, leaves them sitting nicely in third place.
Brendan Rodgers's side may have collapsed towards the end of last season, but they have won four of their last six in the league and have a seven-point gap on fifth place.
The Foxes' away form has been a little more mixed, it must be said, having won three of their last seven on their travels, most recently losing 3-2 to West Ham United.
Leicester's most recent trip to St Mary's in October 2019 lives fresh in the memory, though, as they netted nine unanswered goals to equal the Premier League's record winning margin.
© Reuters
Southampton fans are tired of being reminded of that evening, and indeed their 9-0 loss to Manchester United in February, so they have more than one reason to exact revenge here.
Ralph Hasenhuttl's side enter this game in bad form, however, with league losses to West Brom and Tottenham Hotspur either side of their Wembley defeat.
Danny Ings gave Southampton the lead at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last week, only for Gareth Bale to equalise and Son Heung-min to convert a penalty in the final minute.
The Saints did pick up a 3-2 win against Burnley in their most recent home match, but that is their only three-point haul in six attempts at St Mary's.
Southampton should be assured of Premier League football next season with a nine-point gap on 18th-placed Fulham, but one more win is required if they are to make certain of that.
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Ings left the field against Spurs just before the hour mark with an injury. Southampton have had a nine-day rest between games, but the striker will not return for this game - or indeed before the end of the season.
Full-back Ryan Bertrand is expected to be back in contention after missing that last match, however, likely meaning Mohammed Salisu dropping to the bench.
Striker Michael Obafemi has an outside chance of featuring after returning to training, but William Smallbone and Oriol Romeu are definitely out.
Theo Walcott, who has scored five goals in his 10 Premier League appearances against Leicester, is expected to get the nod out on the left flank.
It has been a quicker turnaround in games for Leicester, but they have nearly a fully-fit squad to choose from for this trip to the south coast.
James Justin and Harvey Barnes remain absent, while veteran centre-back Wes Morgan is a major fitness doubt.
Teenager Luke Thomas retained his place at left wing-back for the win against Palace, but Ricardo Pereira is pushing for a recall for Friday's contest.
Ayoze Perez is another who will be desperate for a starting spot, as he looks to build on a return of seven Premier League goals against Southampton.
Southampton possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Walker-Peters, Bednarek, Vestergaard, Bertrand; Armstrong, Diallo, Ward-Prowse, Walcott; Redmond, Adams
Leicester City possible starting lineup:
Schmeichel; Fofana, Evans, Soyuncu; Pereira, Ndidi, Tielemans, Castagne; Maddison; Vardy, Iheanacho
We say: Southampton 0-2 Leicester City
While Leicester's recent away form has been a little inconsistent, only Manchester City have more points-per-game on their travels this season in the Premier League.
Southampton are not guaranteed safety and could do with a morale-boosting victory, but we cannot see past a City win, albeit by a smaller margin than their last visit to St Mary's.
Top tip
Video prediction
Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 48.66%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 26.65% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.47%) and 0-2 (8.37%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-0 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
