Shakhtyor Soligorsk will be looking to close the gap on top spot in the Belarusian Premier League when they take on a struggling Belshina side at the Stroitel Stadium on Friday.
The in-form hosts have won three and drawn one of their last four matches to move up to fifth, four points adrift of pacesetters BATE, while Belshina are rock bottom.
Match preview
© Reuters
Soligorsk have not finished lower than third in the last decade, but they have been unable to finish top of the pile in any of those campaigns.
Following a disappointing start to 2020, when taking five points from the first 15 on offer, it looked like that run may come to an end.
However, Yuriy Vernydub's side have been in fine form over the past month and will be right in title contention if they can keep their momentum going this weekend.
On the face of it, Belshina will not provide much competition for their opponents if their form this season is anything to go by.
After earning promotion from the second tier last year, Eduard Gradoboyev's men are still seeking their first win at this level.
Just three points from their first nine matches means Belshina are rock bottom of the table, five points adrift of 14th-place Neman.
The visitors did at least end a three match losing run last time out with a 1-1 draw against mid-table Vitebsk, and it could have been all three points if not for a late equaliser.
No team in the division has conceded more goals than the 16 Belshina have let in, while their goals-for tally of seven is also unsurprisingly among the worst.
Taking their most recent season at this level into account, meanwhile, it is one win in 24 games for Belshina, 15 of those ending in defeat.
Anything less than three points for Shakhtyor would be a big upset, then, especially considering their run of three straight home wins in all competitions, scoring 10 times.
Shakhtyor Soligorsk's league form: DLWWDW
Shakhtyor Soligorsk's form (all competitions): LWWWDW
Belshina's league form: DDLLLD
Head To Head
Belshina may have spent the last few years playing in the second tier, but they faced Shakhtyor twice last season in the Belarusian Cup.
Soligorsk were comfortable 6-0 winners over the two-legged quarter-final, scoring five of those goals at the Stroitel Stadium.
The visitors are winless in four meetings against Friday's opponents, in fact, last coming out on top in a 3-1 victory on May 20, 2015.
We say: Shakhtyor Soligorsk 3-0 Belshina
Belshina have the ability to carve out the odd draw, but even after nine games it is apparent that they are heading for an immediate return to the second tier. Shakhtyor can climb into the top three this weekend, meanwhile, and it is hard to see anything other than a comfortable home win on Friday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtyor Soligorsk win with a probability of 62.7%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Belshina had a probability of 15.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtyor Soligorsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.79%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for a Belshina win it was 0-1 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtyor Soligorsk would win this match.
