Serie A | Gameweek 16
Dec 18, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Gewiss Stadium
Atalanta4 - 1Salernitana
Muriel (47'), Pasalic (52'), De Ketelaere (83'), Miranchuk (89')
Piero Gasperini (41'), Ruggeri (77')
Piero Gasperini (41'), Ruggeri (77')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Rakow 0-4 Atalanta
Thursday, December 14 at 8pm in Europa League
Thursday, December 14 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Salernitana 1-2 Bologna
Sunday, December 10 at 5pm in Serie A
Sunday, December 10 at 5pm in Serie A
We said: Atalanta BC 5-1 Salernitana
Atalanta have returned to form in the past week and been excellent in front of goal, so they will be fully expectant of beating a side struggling at the foot of the table. While there has been just four goals in the other three meetings between these sides since Salernitana's promotion, a similar scoreline to the 8-2 recorded here 11 months ago looks the more likely outcome. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 71.86%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 10.69%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.12%) and 3-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.3%), while for a Salernitana win it was 0-1 (3.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Salernitana |
71.86% ( 2.51) | 17.45% ( -1.39) | 10.69% ( -1.13) |
| Both teams to score 47.14% ( 0.84) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
