Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 53.01%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Castellon had a probability of 19.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.6%) and 1-2 (8.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.14%), while for a Castellon win it was 1-0 (8.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.