Scottish Cup | Quarter-Finals

Mar 10, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Tulloch Caledonian Stadium

Inverness
2 - 1
Kilmarnock

Mckay (24' pen.), Welsh (50')
Carson (34'), Duffy (70')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Vassell (3')
Vassell (36'), Donnelly (76')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Scottish Cup clash between Inverness Caledonian Thistle and Kilmarnock, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

All competitions

Scottish Cup

Last Game: Ayr 1-2 Inverness
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in Scottish Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Kilmarnock

All competitions

Scottish Cup

Last Game: Rangers 3-1 Kilmarnock
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1-2 Kilmarnock

Inverness have had to rely upon the administrative errors of their opponents to even make it this far in a cup run, which may well come to an end this Friday if Kilmarnock can fend off their travel sickness to win the club's first Scottish Cup quarter-final since 1997. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inverness Caledonian Thistle win with a probability of 42.85%. A win for Kilmarnock had a probability of 31.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inverness Caledonian Thistle win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.87%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Kilmarnock win was 0-1 (8.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Inverness Caledonian Thistle would win this match.

Result
Inverness Caledonian Thistle	Draw	Kilmarnock
42.85% ( -0.06)	26.13% ( 0)	31.02% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 52.51% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.2% (

0.02)

51.81% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.43% (

0.01)

73.57% (

-0.01)

Inverness Caledonian Thistle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.01% (

-0.02)

23.99% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.76% (

-0.03)

58.24% (

0.04)

Kilmarnock Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.09% (

0.05)

30.91% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.8% (

0.06)

67.2% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Inverness Caledonian Thistle 42.85%

Kilmarnock 31.02%

Draw 26.12%

Inverness Caledonian Thistle	Draw	Kilmarnock
1-0 @ 10.58% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.87% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.56% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.22% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.6% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.48% 4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.28% ( -0) Other @ 2.76% Total : 42.85%	1-1 @ 12.42% 0-0 @ 7.42% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.21% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.12%	0-1 @ 8.71% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.3% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.11% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.86% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.04% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.01% Total : 31.02%